MLB Tuesday Best-Bet Trifecta: Dodgers, Brew Crew And 1 Total
Heads up: One of my MLB Tuesday plays is a carryover from Monday's slate. The Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Angels game was postponed Monday due to the effects of Hurricane Hilary. Since nothing has changed, I'm running it back with that pick. Otherwise, I have two original bets in the account for ...
MLB Tuesday Tilts
Los Angeles Dodgers (76-47) at Cleveland Guardians (59-66)
Dodgers-Guardians betting odds in MLB Tuesday, August 22nd from DraftKings.
Foolishly, the Guardians were my preseason pick to win the 2023 World Series. That's pretty much off the table. Cleveland is 6.0 games behind the 1st-place Minnesota Twins in the AL Central and was sellers at the trade deadline.
The Dodgers on the other hand were buyers and did a deal with the Guardians at the end of July. Cleveland sent SS Amed Rosario to LA in return for Tuesday's starting RHP, Noah Syndergaard (2-6, 6.57 ERA).
Syndergaard has been awful since going to Cleveland. He's allowed 12 ER in just 21.1 IP and 6 HRs in his four starts. Syndergaard's 7.30 FIP as a Guardian ("fielding independent pitching") suggests he is lucky to have allowed that many runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Bobby Miller fires a pitch vs. the Diamondbacks at Chase Field in Arizona. (Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports)
While LAD's Tuesday starting RHP Bobby Miller (7-2, 3.70 ERA) has been a lock as a road favorite in his rookie season. The Dodgers are 6-1 straight up (SU) and vs. the Run Line (RL) in Miller's seven road starts this year with a +5.9 SU margin.
Also, Cleveland's relief pitching has tailed off since the All-Star break and the Guardians are struggling at the plate this month. Cleveland's bullpen ranks 15th in FIP in the 2nd-half of the year and the lineup is 29th in WAR in August, per FanGraphs.
The Dodgers are beating people's brains in lately. In August, they are 14-5 vs. the RL with a +36.2% RL return on investment. Essentially, the Dodgers have a 3-phase edge over the Guardians in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
BET: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125) RL at DraftKings (down to -135)
Minnesota Twins (65-60) at Milwaukee Brewers (68-57)
Twins-Brewers betting odds in MLB Tuesday, August 22nd from DraftKings.
This is a situation of "wrong team favored". Milwaukee has much better pitching and performs better in interleague contests. Brewers starting LHP Wade Miley (6-3, 3.05 ERA) doesn't have jaw-dropping stuff but he induces a lot of soft contact.
According to Statcast, Miley is in the 82nd-percentile for exit velocity (EV) and 90th-percentile for hard-hit rate. Over his last seven starts, Miley has a 2.75 ERA with only 4 HRs allowed.
Miley has a .215/.278/.325 expected slash line in 77 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Twins hitters. Miley's K-rate in those PA is 26.0%, his EV is 86.2 mph and his launch angle is 8.3°, per Statcast.
Milwaukee Brewers LHP Wade Miley throws a pitch vs. the Chicago Cubs at American Family Field. (Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Minnesota's lineup ranks 25th in both wRC+ and wOBA vs. left-handed pitching and 23rd in BB/K rate, according to FanGraphs.
Twins starting RHP Bailey Ober (6-6, 3.40 ERA) has allowed 8 HRs in his last seven starts and has a 4.86 ERA. In 24 PA vs. current Brewers batters, Ober has a .280/.320/.469 expected slash line, 25.0 K%, 92.9 mph EV, and 20.5° launch angle.
Finally, Milwaukee's bullpen has improved in the 2nd-half of the year. Since the MLB All-Star Game, the Brew Crew's FIP ranks 4th among bullpens, their K-BB% is 1st, and their hard-hit rate is 9th, per FanGraphs.
BET: Milwaukee Brewers (-105) moneyline at DraftKings (down to -125)
Cincinnati Reds (64-61) at Los Angeles Angels (61-64)
Reds-Angels betting odds in MLB Tuesday, August 22nd from DraftKings.
Both are the Reds and Angels are falling out of playoff contention and have the same trend-line over the past month. Cincy and LAA are 4-6 over their last 10 games, 7-13 in the past 20, and 14-16 in the last 30.
Moreover, both ballclubs are struggling at the plate in August. The Angels are dead-last in WAR (-1.4) and wRC+ (61) this month, according to FanGraphs. The Reds are 25th in both WAR (0.5) and wRC+ (83).
Reds starting LHP Graham Ashcraft (6-8, 4.89 ERA) takes the mound Monday. Ashcraft has the best "Stuff+" among qualified MLB starters, per FanGraphs. Six of Ashcraft's eight starts since July 1 have been "quality outings".
Cincinnati Reds LHP Graham Ashcraft pitches against Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
RHP Lucas Giolito (7-9, 4.44 ERA) is on the bump for the Angels and has been awful since being traded to Anaheim. Giolito has a 8.14 ERA (19 ER in 21.0 IP) and a 1-3 record as an Angel.
Yet three of those starts have been on the road and Giolito has pitched much better at his home in 2023. Giolito has a 2.62 home ERA this year (6.14 road ERA), a 0.90 home WHIP (1.62 road WHIP), and a 4.1 K/BB home rate (2.4 K/BB road rate).
Neither bullpen is any good. In fact, they are both in the bottom-10 of MLB in FIP. However, I'm betting their collective hitting struggles outweigh their poor relief pitching Monday.