MLB Thursday 'Locks' Are Cardinals As Home 'Dogs And 1 Total
Three weeks. That's how long we have to wait for the NFL's 2023 Kickoff Game. Until then, MLB is the only game in town. There are only six games on the schedule. But, I've got "locks" for the New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians on ...
MLB Thursday's Card
New York Mets (55-66) at St. Louis Cardinals (54-67)
Mets-Cardinals betting odds in MLB Thursday, August 17th from DraftKings.
On paper, the Mets have a heavy edge in the starting pitching matchup. The Mets give starting LHP Jose Quintana (0-4, 3.03 ERA) the ball Thursday while the Cardinals send out veteran RHP Adam Wainwright (3-7, 8.78 ERA).
But, St. Louis has the much better relief pitching. The Cardinals' relievers are 5th in FIP ("fielding independent pitching") and 8th in WAR, according to FanGraphs. New York's bullpen ranks 28th in FIP and 29th in WAR.
NYM's awful relief pitching is a big reason why they are pretty much eliminated from NL playoff contention. Plus, the Mets used four relievers Wednesday whereas the Cardinals only used one.
Cardinals 1B Paul Goldschmidt at bat vs. the Colorado Rockies at Busch Stadium in St Louis, Missouri. (Joe Puetz/Getty Images)
St. Louis's lineup hits lefties better than NYM does vs. righties. The Cardinals out-rank the Mets in wRC+ (111-104), wOBA (.331-.318) and hard-hit rate (38.1-31.6%) vs. those respective pitching handedness, per FanGraphs.
This month, St. Louis's lineup is 6th in WAR and 4th in both wRC+ and wOBA, per FanGraphs. The Mets on the other hand are 24th in WAR, 18th in wRC+, and 22nd in wOBA in August.
Since the All-Star break, the Mets are 2-9 straight up (SU) with a -2.5 SU margin on the road and the Cardinals are 10-9 SU at home.
BET: Cardinals (+114) ML at DraftKings (down to +105)
Detroit Tigers (54-66) at Cleveland Guardians (58-63)
Tigers-Guardians betting odds in MLB Thursday, August 17th from DraftKings.
All six Tigers-Guardians meetings this season have gone Under Tuesday's 8.5-run total. Since the beginning of last season, the Tigers-Guardians are 8-15-2 Over/Under (O/U) in their head-to-head series.
Detroit is 6-11 O/U on the road since the MLB All-Star Game and Cleveland is 4-9 O/U at home. Furthermore, Progressive Field in Cleveland is the most pitcher-friendly venue in MLB, per Statcast.
I whiffed backing Detroit LHP Tarik Skubal (2-2, 4.18 ERA) in his previous outing vs. the Boston Red Sox. However, Skubal still has great stuff and Cleveland's lineup is awful vs. left-handed pitching.
Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal throws a pitch vs. the San Francisco Giants at Comerica Park in Detroit. (Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images)
Over his previous six starts, Skubal has alternated between allowing 0 ER and giving up runs and he allowed 4 ERs in his last outing. The Guardians are 29th in wRC+ and dead-last in wOBA, ISO, and hard-hit rate against lefties.
The Guardians give starting RHP Xzavion Curry (3-1, 3.39 ERA) the ball Thursday. Curry is only in Cleveland's rotation due to injuries but Detroit's lineup struggles vs. right-handed pitching. The Tigers are 23rd in wRC+ and 25th in wOBA against righties.