MLB Futures - Cy Young Value Bets
We’ve covered the MVP Award, so now lets take a look at some of the Cy Young candidates for the next season. Last year we came pretty close, but didn’t ultimately hit either of the winners. And, by close, I mean we had either a finalist or inside of the last month we had a ticket on the frontrunner.
National League is where we will start. I’m going to give a name that I gave last year – Walker Buehler. I believe that before it is all said and done, Buehler will have a couple of these awards in his trophy case. He is a dominant pitcher that throws well enough against his own division, and he plays on a team that provides enough run support regularly that he shouldn’t be too stressed about pitching in close games often. At +1100 it is my favorite Cy Young Bet.
Aside from Buehler, there are a couple of other names that I like. Jacob deGrom is already dealing with a potential injury so I don’t know that I can accept betting on him. One other pitcher that has been dominant but has been pretty injured over the past few years is Jack Flaherty. He absolutely has the stuff to be a Cy Young winner. I think he has good value at +4000. Carlos Rodon is my other bet to win. Him moving leagues and moving to San Francisco does cause a bit of concern for me, but I think he is talented enough to potentially win it. And, if the Giants can do what they did with their pitching staff last year, they may be able to elevate Rodon further. I’ll take him +3000.
In the American League, the front runner, once again, is Gerrit Cole. At +400, I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to take it. He is a dominant pitcher with plus stuff and a strikeout machine. The reason I won’t play it is that he has to face the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Rays so many times during the season. That’s a lot of tough lineups. So, no, I won’t be playing Cole. I also don’t have a “favorite” like I do in the NL. I’m instead going to share a few players I like and will put smaller plays on.
Robbie Ray to repeat is a possibility. I think he came a bit out of nowhere to steal it last year, but he had a good year either way. Ray now moves to the AL West and gets to face the Rangers and Athletics multiple times. I think there is value, but I doubt I’d put more than a quarter unit on Ray for the repeat.
Lance Lynn is the guy I like the most to get the award. He has been great for the last few years, but his biggest drawback is that he typically only throws five innings. He doesn’t really blow people away, but he keeps the teams in games and his White Sox team is going to provide him with run support. That makes your job as a pitcher so much easier. Lynn at +2500 is a good bet.
Justin Verlander looks good. He is definitely getting older, and they may not let him start all of his games, but I’m taking Verlander to win the Cy Young as well. He also is +2500, which, he probably should be higher coming off an injury, but I think if he comes out in his first start and throws a quality start with say 7 or more strikeouts, this number is likely to drop.
The last person I’d consider is Noah Syndergaard. He has something to prove this season and he is in a good division to potentially dominate. Syndergaard was one of the most dominant pitchers for years, can he reclaim it? Maybe. He is also on a one-year contract, so if he pitches well, he might get a huge deal (likely the last of his career). At +6000, why not.
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