MLB Futures At The All-Star Break

MLB Second Half Futures

I've mentioned in the past few articles that this is the stretch of the year where there is almost no activity from any of the big four sports in America. While that still leaves us with golf, soccer, the WNBA, and some other options for sports betting, it does still leave us with a void. The WNBA, after trying to take center stage yesterday, is off all day again which is just pathetic and a stupid decision by the league. And, yesterday, Shane Gillis's jokes about the league trended more than the games. Today we get golf, tennis, and soccer, but I'm focused on the second half of baseball and want to put a mediocre first half behind me. What can we expect for win totals and playoff pushes in the second half of this season?

 If the playoffs ended today, you'd have the Blue Jays, Tigers, and Astros in from the American League as division winners. The wild card winners would be the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mariners. In the National League it would be the Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers winning their respective divisions, and the Wild Card spots would go to the Brewers, Mets, and Padres. There are still a lot of teams in the race with six teams within 4.5 games of the last Wild Card spot Mariners, and four teams within 5.5 games of the last Wild Card spot Padres. It would be hard to see one of these division leaders not make the playoffs, but it is possible. The most likely would be the Blue Jays. If you're looking for a team to bet against with making the playoffs, I'd probably pick the Padres or the Red Sox. You're not getting much value on Boston or San Diego as they are basically a coinflip for betting odds at the moment. Boston got hot right before the break, but they were under .500 shortly before that streak. San Diego has played well all year, but they have to deal with the Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks. 

Mar 31, 2025; West Sacramento, California, USA; Chicago Cubs catcher Carson Kelly (15) high five teammates after the game at Sutter Health Park. Kelly hit for the cycle. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

If you're absolutely in need of grabbing a bet on a team not making the playoffs this year, bet on the Blue Jays at +320. The Yankees could catch them, and one injury to the rotation may make this club one that fades instead of surges - this is coming from a Blue Jays supporter over the past few years. The other to consider would be Milwaukee, but I don't like that as much. The Brewers have been very good this season, and could overtake the Cubs for the division. The potential, though, is that the Brewers have a tougher schedule down the stretch and they could lose out to the Cardinals, or one of the NL West teams, despite leading the Wild Card pack at the moment. 

There are roughly 65 games remaining for each team this season. That gives us a pretty good indication of what the team is, and where they are likely to go. The Athletics' win total is set at 68.5 and they currently have won 41 games. That's about 40% of their games, and if we see how many wins is equivalent to winning 40% of their remaining schedule, we get 26. Which puts them at 67 games. Again, we have a good amount of info on the team, and we can use some math to help us get the remainder of the way. The Athletics have been slightly better than that record shows - there was a massive losing streak that keeps this from being a bit higher of a number. I also could see them trading some arms. So, personally, I won't touch this, but I do think the over is the right play. I brought them up because it was an easy example. 

My win totals at the All-Star Break are as follows, and you can read above for the basic reasons of how I got there, but other factors like trade deadline expectations and some other things have gone into them as well: 

• Cubs under 95.5 wins (their starting pitching isn't great, they probably will add, but this seems a bit high to me for their total)
• Pirates under 66.5 
• Orioles under 75.5
• Rays over 83.5

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024