MLB Friday Fun Featuring 1 Big 'Dog, 1 Massive Favorite

Hand up: The 1st half of the MLB 2023 season was an abject disaster for me from a betting perspective. My record is 52-57 and my bankroll has dropped -9.3 units (u).

After flirting with retirement from betting the MLB, I've decided to return to the diamond Friday. Partially because there is nothing else to gamble on and partially because I was in a similar situation last year.

Prior to joining OutKick in August, my MLB record was atrocious. But, shortly after my OutKick employment began, I rattled off a 12-game MLB winning streak. As you can see above, I need another hot-streak in baseball.

Let's start the 2nd-half of the season with some ...

MLB Friday Fun

Chicago White Sox (38-54) at Atlanta Braves (60-29)

White Sox-Braves betting odds from DraftKings as of noon ET Friday, July 14th.

Atlanta is running away with the NL East with an 8.5-game lead over the next closest team and the Braves have the best record in MLB. The White Sox are 8.0 games back in the AL Central, which is the worst division in baseball.

The gap between these teams is evident when you look at the odds. Atlanta has a 3-phase edge over CWS in starting and relief pitching and hitting.

White Sox RHP Michael Koepech’s 5.58 FIP (“fielding independent pitching”) suggests he’s been on the good side of variance. FIP is more predictive than ERA and Kopech has a 4.08 ERA. He ranks in the 30th percentile or lower in exit velocity (EV), chase rate, barrel rate, and BB%, per Statcast.

Braves RHP Charlie Morton is having his standard solid season and is FanGraphs’ 14th-ranked pitcher in the two weeks prior to the All-Star break. Morton’s FIP (3.79) is only slightly higher than his ERA (3.43).

Braves righty Charlie Morton pitches in the 2nd inning vs. the Reds at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

Since 2022, the Braves are 8-1 straight up (SU) and 6-3 run line (RL) as home favorites of -180 with Morton on the mound. Atlanta has a +24.7% RL return on investment in those spots and seven straight wins. 

Moreover, Atlanta’s bullpen leads MLB in FIP (3.56) and is 2nd in WAR (3.9), per FanGraphs. While Chicago’s bullpen is 27th in both FIP (4.51) and WAR (0.9).

Plus, the Braves rake right-handed pitching. Per FanGraphs, Atlanta’s lineup is 3rd in wRC+ vs. righties and 1st in both wOBA and hard-hit rate. The White Sox is 27th in both wRC+ and wOBA and 26th in hard-hit rate. 

BET: 1.35u on the Braves -1.5 (-135) RL at DraftKings

Atlanta's RL odds vs. the Chicago White Sox in MLB Friday, July 14th from DraftKings as of noon ET.

Detroit Tigers (39-50) at Seattle Mariners (45-44)

Tigers-Mariners betting odds from DraftKings as of noon ET Friday, July 14th.

Believe it or not, Detroit is closer to winning the AL Central than Seattle is with the AL West. The Tigers are 5.5 games behind the Cleveland Guardians in the division and the Mariners are 6.0 games back of the Texas Rangers out West.

Detroit's starter Friday, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (4-5, 2.64 ERA), has an effective cutter, and Seattle’s lineup struggles vs. cutters. According to Statcast, E. Rodriguez’s cutter has a +5 run value (RV), which is a good thing.

Six of eight Mariners hitters have a negative RV vs. cutters including Julio Rodriguez and Teoscar Hernandez. Furthermore, Seattle’s lineup has the 2nd-worst K% vs. left-handed pitching and ranks 22nd in BB%, per FanGraphs.

Tigers starting LHP Eduardo Rodriguez delivers a pitch vs. the Oakland Athletics at Comerica Park in Detroit. (Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports)

E. Rodriguez grades in the 80th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, BB%, and expected ERA over expected wOBA, according to Statcast. Also, there’s been line movement toward Detroit in the betting market.

According to Pregame.com, Seattle opened up as -200 moneyline (ML) favorites and more than 70% of the bets in the consensus betting market are on the Mariners. But, nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Tigers, which explains the line movement. 

BET: 1u on the Tigers +155 moneyline at DraftKings

Detroit's ML odds vs. the Seattle Mariners in MLB Friday, July 14th from DraftKings as of noon ET.