Do You Want Two Betting 'Locks' For MLB Friday? Well, Click And Tail

Truth be told, betting on regular-season MLB kind of sucks. I mean, when you are winning it's awesome. But, when you're losing, it's the worst. Since the best hitters do it right 30% of the time, you're predicting what 1-in-3 chances hit when betting baseball daily. It's a bleeping grind and not for everyone. That said, it's Friday, the 2024 NBA Finals are a joke and I have nothing else to gamble on. With that in mind, I got two MLB looks worth backing Friday. 

MLB Betting Card: June 14th 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Philadelphia Phillies (46-22) at Baltimore Orioles (45-23), 7:05 p.m. ET 

FanDuel Odds 

• Moneyline (ML): Philadelphia (+110) | BALTIMORE (-130) 
• Runline (RL): Phillies +1.5 (-196) | Orioles -1.5 (+162)
• Total — 7.5 — Over (+100) | Under (-122)

Starters

• Philadelphia Phillies LHP Ranger Suarez: 10-1 with a 1.81 ERA.
• Baltimore Orioles RHP Kyle Bradish: 2-0 with a 2.62 ERA.

ORIOLES (-130) over Phillies

Baltimore's lineup crushes lefties. Per FanGraphs, the Orioles are second in wRC+, first in ISO, third in wOBA, and 10th in hard-hit rate. Plus, they are 14-5 vs. left-handed starters and 7-2 at home against lefties with a +2.11 per-game run differential. Suarez is having an NL Cy Young-caliber campaign but 11 of his 13 starts have been against teams with a losing record. 

Baltimore Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson hits a grand slam off Boston Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. (Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)

Bradish grades out at 91% or higher among MLB starters in xERA, xBA, K%, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate, according to Statcast. In fact, Bradish ranks ahead of Suarez in all of these metrics. Moreover, both teams have elite relief pitching but Baltimore's bullpen is more well-rested. 

Finally, we are seeing "reverse line movement". Per Pregame.com, roughly 70% of the bets are on the Phillies as of noon ET Friday. However, the Orioles opened at -107 and are up to -135 at DraftKings. Whether it be a "trap line" or "sharp money", the market is selling high on Suarez as well. 

BET 1.3 units (u) on Baltimore's -130 ML at FanDuel. The Orioles are playable up to -140. 

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Cleveland Guardians (43-23) at Toronto Blue Jays (33-35), 7:07 p.m. ET

DraftKings Odds 

• ML: CLEVELAND (+120) | Toronto (-142)
• RL: Guardians +1.5 (-185) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+154)
• Total — 8 — Over (-112) | Under (-108)

Starters

• Cleveland Guardians LHP Logan Allen: 6-3 with a 5.57 ERA.
• Toronto Blue Jays RHP Kevin Gausman: 5-4 with a 4.00 ERA.

GUARDIANS (+120) over Blue Jays

I'm fading Gausman off his best start of the season. Gausman pitched a complete game shutout against the Oakland Athletics Saturday, striking out 10 A's with just one walk and five hits. At home this season, Gausman is 1-2 with a 6.68 ERA (1.86 road-ERA) and 1.61 WHIP (0.96 road-WHIP). 

Furthermore, Toronto's lineup has been struggling lately and sucks vs. left-handed pitching. In June, the Blue Jays are 27th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA, and 25th in WAR, according to FanGraphs. Against lefties, Toronto is 19th in hard-hit rate and 25th in both wRC+ and wOBA. 

Cleveland Guardians reliever Emmanuel Clase  trying to close out a game vs. the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. (Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)

The Guardians are 8-2 this season after a day off with a +2.5 per-game run differential. Also, they have by far the best relief pitching in MLB. Cleveland's bullpen leads baseball in WAR, ERA, Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP"), which is more predictive than ERA, and K-BB%, per FanGraphs. 

Finally, there is a "line freeze" in the betting market. According to Pregame.com, over 70% of the action is on the Blue Jays yet the line hasn't budged from the opener. This is just a cherry atop the handicapping sundae. Yet, I consider betting splits more so in MLB because the public doesn't move the odds in regular-season baseball. 

BET 1u on Cleveland's +120 ML at DraftKings. The Guardians are good down to even-money (+100). 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.