MLB 'Dummy' Parlay For Sunday Involves Padres, Brewers
Hopefully, you can use some of your betting surplus on this MLB 'Dummy' parlay for Sunday. Since I went 0-2 in my MLB Friday bets, I'm hoping the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers bust a slump.
If you're familiar with my work, you've heard me say that these parlays aren't exactly "advantage plays". However, I'm up units with a 2-2 record in these stupid MLB parlays because they are always plus-money payouts.
MLB Parlay Leg #1: Boston Red Sox (11-11) at Milwaukee Brewers (15-6)
Odds
Betting odds for Red Sox at Brewers as of 10 a.m. ET on Sunday, April 23rd from DraftKings.
Starting Pitchers
Handicap
Ultimately, this is just a vibe bet. As in, I have a hunch the Brewers are going to smack the Red Sox Sunday in their rubber-match. Milwaukee's 1st loss as a home favorite in 2023 was the series opener vs. Boston, 5-3.
Burnes is the 2021 NL Cy Young and still has nasty stuff despite unimpressive basic numbers thus far. Per Statcast, Burnes is in the 82nd-percentile for chase rate and 70th-percentile for hard-hit rate with the most movement on his fastball.
Brewers starting RHP Corbin Burnes pitches vs. the Mariners at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Bello got nuked in his 1st start this season and had terrible command in 2022. Bello graded in the 33rd-percentile for K% and 20th-percentile for BB%, per Statcast. The Brewers are 8th in BB/9 rate against right-handed pitching.
Milwaukee's lineup is out-ranks Boston's vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (111-100), wOBA (.341-.323), and BB/K rate (0.44-0.41). The Brew Crew are 12-5 straight up (SU) vs. righty starters and the Red Sox are 5-7 SU.
MLB Parlay Leg #2: San Diego Padres (11-12) at Arizona Diamondbacks (12-10)
Odds
Betting odds for the Padres at the Diamondbacks as of 10 a.m. ET on Sunday, April 23rd from DraftKings.
Starting Pitchers
Handicap
On paper, Arizona's lineup is more productive against right-handed pitching than San Diego's. But, the Padres are dead-last in BABIP and the D-Backs are 9th. BABIP is a luck-based stat and these lineups should regress or progress to the mean.
More importantly, San Diego's lineup just got a huge boost. Padres All-Star slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. returned to the field Saturday after serving an 80-game suspension for testing positive for steroids.
Arizona's lineup is tied for the 2nd-worst BB/K rate vs. righties in MLB. Darvish diced up a good Milwaukee lineup and took a "hard-luck" loss because the Padres batters let him down.
The D-Backs' bullpen is 29th in WAR (-0.6), FIP ("fielding independent pitching") and hard-hit rate and last in HR/9 rate. Also, Jameson has good stuff and is a highly-touted prospect but MLB hitters are all over him.
According to Statcast, Jameson ranks in the 26th-percentile or worse in expected slugging percentage, chase rate, hard-hit rate, exit velocity, BB%, and barrel rate.
MLB 'Dummy' Parlay: Brewers and Padres MLs (+165) at DraftKings
MLB 2-team parlay bet slip with the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres for Sunday, April 23rd at DraftKings.