'Wrong Team Favored' In Boston Red Sox Vs. Texas Rangers Saturday

The Texas Rangers (1-1) host the Boston Red Sox (1-1) on Saturday at Globe Life Field for the third of a four-game series. Texas avenged a 5-2 loss Opening Day with a 4-1 win Friday. Boston sends RHP Walker Buehler to the mound Saturday, and the Rangers counter with RHP Tyler Mahle. 

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Even though I hate the Los Angeles Dodgers, I've always been a big fan of Buehler when he pitched in Los Angeles. Despite going 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA last year, Buehler has a 47-22 career record with a 3.27 ERA. His career K%, BB%, and home run rate are all below the MLB averages. 

Buehler dealt with injuries for the past three seasons, missing 2023 entirely, but he was a key contributor to the Dodgers' World Series titles in 2020 and last year. He was 2-0 in the 2020 playoffs with a 1.80 ERA in five starts. He beat the New York Yankees in Game 3 of the 2024 World Series and got the save in LA's series-clinching Game 5. 

Of course, the Dodgers, being the scumbags that they are, didn't resign Buehler this offseason, and he went to the rival of my favorite team, the Yankees. Los Angeles is so good that they don't have room in their rotation for Buehler. Whatever. The Dodgers aren't even playing. My point is I'm higher than the market on Buehler. 

Boston Red Sox RHP Walker Buehler faces the New York Yankees in the 2024 World Series while pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers. (Photo credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images)

The opposite is true about the Rangers and their starter on Saturday, RHP Tyler Mahle. On paper, Texas has one of the best rosters in MLB, and it's one year removed from winning the 2023 World Series. But the Rangers rebuilt their bullpen this offseason after a bad 2024, and relief pitching is the most important thing in baseball. So, Texas's bullpen is an unknown commodity. 

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Mahle has only made eight starts over the last two seasons, and he wasn't that good pre-injury. He has a 33-42 career record with a 4.32 ERA. Mahle has one winning season in his eight years in the majors. Plus, his fastball velocity has dropped in four consecutive seasons, albeit two of them were injury-plagued, and he only has a three-pitch arsenal. 

Also, three of Boston's first four batters are lefties: LF Jarren Duran, DH Rafael Devers, and 1B Triston Casas. The third hitter in the Red Sox's lineup is newly acquired two-time All-Star and two-time World Series champion 3B Alex Bregman. Give me these four vs. Mahle over what the Rangers have going on against Buehler. 

With all this talk about the starters, you'd think I'd rather bet the "First 5-Inning" line, but that's just not my style. Baseball is so random, and I'd rather bet a full game (most of the time) because I rely on my bullpen analysis. That said, the Red Sox's three best relievers didn't pitch Friday, whereas the Rangers used five relievers, including closer Luke Jackson. 

Best Bet: Boston Red Sox +102 moneyline at FanDuel, up to -115. 

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