The Athletics' Run To A 2025 AL West Title Begins Friday At The Seattle Mariners

My 2-1 record on 2025 MLB Opening Day best bets is a fair outcome. It could've been 0-3 or 3-0. I cashed with the Miami Marlins and Cleveland Guardians as underdogs and lost with the Cincinnati Reds as slight ‘dogs. Since I bet all underdogs, I had a +51.6% return on investment Opening Day. Eventually, I'll stop betting regular-season MLB, but I'll dabble until my inevitable losing skid. 

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Miami had a three-run rally in the 8th and 9th innings to upset the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-4. Cleveland All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase blew a save, but the Guardians still beat the Kansas City Royals 7-4 in extra innings. Cincy closer Ian Gibaut also blew a save, giving up four runs in the top of the 9th, and the Reds lost to the San Francisco Giants 6-4. 

Friday, I'm gambling on the Athletics (0-1) at Seattle Mariners (1-0) game. Seattle won the season opener 4-2 thanks to a three-run rally in the bottom of the 8th inning. My best bet to win the 2025 AL Cy Young, Mariners RHP Logan Gilbert, pitched 7.0 innings with 1 ER (a solo home run), 8 K's and no walks. Well, spoiler alert: I'm taking my best bet to win the AL West to even the series Friday. 

Homeless Athletics at Seattle Mariners Handicap

The market agrees with my assessment that the A's aren't that bad. How do I know? Well, in layman's terms, "these odds are sketchy". Last year, the Mariners were 5-1 at home vs. the Athletics, and Seattle's moneyline was -186 on average. The Mariners are -142 favorites at DraftKings in this game at the time of writing, and they are down from -160 on the opener. 

Considering the sportsbooks projected Seattle to win 13 more games than the A's this season, shouldn't Seattle be a bigger favorite here? Mariners RHP Luis Castillo is Friday's starter, and he was 2-0 vs. the A's last year, a three-time All-Star, and fifth in 2023 AL Cy Young voting. So, Seattle being only -142 is sketchy. Unless the Athletics are better than the market thinks. 

I've already laid out my case for why their bullpen is underrated. Athletics All-Star closer Mason Miller has filthy stuff, and the rest of their bullpen is solid. The A's have a couple of mashers in their lineup: RF Lawrence Butler and DH Brent Rooker. Plus, after digging deeper into Castillo's two games against the Athletics last year, I can say he got a little lucky. 

Athletics RF Lawrence Butler runs out his solo home run vs. the Seattle Mariners at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. (Photo Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images)

Castillo had a 2.77 ERA vs. the A's last year, but a 5.40 Fielding Independent Pitching, which is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors outside the pitcher's control. He had 26 flyball outs compared to 10 groundball outs in those outings, despite being more of a groundball pitcher. So, if just one of those flyballs turns into a home run, Castillo's numbers look worse. 

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Meanwhile, I like A's starting LHP Jeffrey Springs, who is on the bump Friday. I'm a New York Yankees fan, and he was good against the Pinstripes while playing for the Tampa Bay Rays from 2021-24. His advanced stats support my eye test. Springs' career K%, BB%, hard-hit rate, and exit velocity are better than the MLB average. He's missed most of the last two years with injuries. 

Regardless, whenever Springs has pitched, he's looked good. Also, for what it's worth (some professional MLB bettors argue this doesn't matter), Springs has better underlying metrics vs. Seattle's current lineup than Castillo vs. the A's. Springs' exit velocity is 13.0 mph slower (95.4-82.4 mph) and his expected slugging percentage is 168 points better (.470-.302), per Statcast. 

Granted, Castillo has 97 plate appearances (PA) against current Athletics hitters, while Springs has just 25 PA vs. active Mariners. Yet, this data point supports my surface knowledge that the A's have had good at-bats against Castillo. Moreover, something has to explain why the line is moving towards the Athletics, because people sure aren't betting on them. 

Best Bet: Athletics +120 moneyline, down to +110 

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