Two MLB Best Bets For Brewers At Mets, Giants At Diamondbacks Tuesday

It's America's birthday week, so it's only appropriate to bet on the nation's former pastime, baseball. I say "former" because the NFL is king, and football has overtaken baseball as America's game. However, the summer belongs to baseball, and I'm up money betting on MLB this season. With that in mind, here are my two looks for Tuesday's card. 

MLB Best Bets: July 1

• Milwaukee Brewers (+108) moneyline, down to +100, at New York Mets via FanDuel, risking 1 unit (u).
• San Francisco Giants (+115) moneyline, down to +105, at Arizona Diamondbacks via Bet365, risking 1u.

Brewers (47-37) at Mets (48-37), 7:10 p.m. ET 

Current Form: 

• Milwaukee has won eight of its past 10 games.
• New York is 3-7 over its last 10 games and was swept in a three-game set by the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates this past weekend.

Starters 

• Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta (8-4, 2.90 ERA).
• Mets RHP Clay Holmes (8-4, 2.97 ERA).

Milwaukee has been red-hot at the dish recently. Over the past two weeks, the Brewers are first in wOBA, second in wRC+, and second in WAR, per FanGraphs. Whereas the Mets are 25th in wOBA, 21st in wRC+, and 22nd in WAR. 

Also, Holmes' numbers are more "smoke and mirrors" than Peralta's. Peralta's whiff rate, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and expected batting average are all better than the MLB average, while Holmes' is worse, according to Statcast. 

Lastly, the market is backing the Brewers in their season opener against the Mets. Milwaukee opened as +115 underdogs at Pinnacle Sportsbook, a market-making oddsmaker, and is down to +108 at Pinnacle at the time of writing. This matters because the public doesn't move lines in regular-season MLB. That's sharp money. 

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Giants (45-40) at Diamondbacks (42-42), 9:40 p.m. ET

Season Series: 

• Arizona leads 3-1. The DBacks won the series opener 4-2 on Monday.

Current Form: 

• San Francisco has won three of its past 10 games and has lost three straight.
• Arizona is 5-5 over its last 10 games.

Starters 

• Giants RHP Hayden Birdsong (3-2, 4.13 ERA).
• Diamondbacks RHP Zac Gallen (5-9, 5.75 ERA).

Gallen has won 65+% of his starts from 2022-24, but he's having the worst year of his career with lows in ERA and WHIP. His underlying stats paint an ugly picture, too. Per Statcast, Gallen ranks in the bottom third of MLB in expected batting average, hard-hit rate, and exit velocity. He is 168th out of 185 qualified starters in Stuff+, according to FanGraphs. 

Furthermore, Gallen has a worse winning percentage (50.0-16.7%), ERA (6.29-5.21), and WHIP (1.623-1.200) at home this season, and has a 6.59 ERA over his last seven starts. Only five of Gallen's 17 outings this year have been "quality starts" (6+ innings pitched with 3 or fewer earned runs allowed). 

Finally, the Giants have a major edge in relief pitching, which is more important than starting pitching nowadays. San Francisco's bullpen is seventh in Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP") and first in hard-hit rate, while Arizona's bullpen is 25th in FIP and 28th in hard-hit rate. FIP is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors outside the pitcher’s control. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2025 betting record via X all season.