MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, July 28, 2021

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Today, as they say, is a new day. That means we have an opportunity to make a splash and make some cash. Let’s get it.

Reds vs Cubs

Zach Davies may be making his last start for the Cubs. Personally, I don’t think he will miss pitching at Wrigley as he has a 4.19 ERA at home and it is even worse when you look at his night games – 5.25 ERA at night. Against the Reds, he has been strong in two starts, with the Cubs winning both of them. They basically take Davies out after four or five innings and turn it over to the bullpen, which the Cubs also are looking to trade away. Tyler Mahle, for the Reds, has been impressive on the road with a 2.26 ERA. He’s faced the Cubs three times this season. The first time went poorly, giving up six earned runs in five innings. After that, his next two starts were nice as he held them to just one earned run in the two starts. I like the Reds to win this game at -108.

Dodgers vs. Giants

Walker Buehler is a hell of a pitcher who has held the Giants to just a .153 average against him in his career. This season, he has given up three earned in 27 innings against the Giants this season. Anthony DeSclafani’s worst start of the season came against the Dodgers, and when he was at home, so there is reason for concern on this.  DeSclafani has given up 18 runs to the Dodgers in 18.1 innings, with 10 earned coming from the aforementioned start. I’m playing the Dodgers tonight to win on the road at -130. As a bonus play, I’m taking a shot on the Dodgers to be leading after three innings at +132. In all four DeSclafani starts, the Dodgers have been winning or tied after three. So, in my opinion, it is a 50/50 shot on them leading or a draw, which should mean we are getting good odds.

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers

This is a game with two pitchers heading in opposite directions. Madison Bumgarner has put together two nice starts after returning from injury. Jordan Lyles has put together two rough starts in a row. Lyles does have a better track record against Diamondback hitters than Bumgarner does against Rangers sluggers though. I expect Bumgarner to continue his improved performance and Lyles to keep the Diamondback hitters at bay tonight. Play the under 9 runs for the game at -115.