MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, July 13, 2022

We didn't hit 10-0 after all. But, we did get to 9-0 as the other play we had is taking off today. Feel free to rebet it, I am not, but my reasoning still stands for taking the Mariners in the first half of the Flexen/Gray game. Good luck however you choose to play it. As for us, let's try and get to 12-0.

Pirates vs. Marlins

Are the Pirates really going to win the first three games against the Marlins? Last time they took the first three games of a road series was when they swept the Dodgers last month. Stranger things have happened, I suppose. The Marlins have a strong candidate to stop the bleeding though in Pablo Lopez. At home, Lopez has a stellar 2.41 ERA. And, after a tough June, he has rebounded with a strong July. The Pirates send JT Brubaker to the mound, and no matter how you split it, the guy has a 4+ ERA. In six of his past seven starts, he has allowed at least three runs. The Pirates have been playing better, but I think Lopez should put some distance between the teams. I'll take the Marlins run line at +120. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Marlins go over their 3.5 team total either.

Dodgers vs. Cardinals

I've said it before when Tony Gonsolin pitches, I'm playing the opponent to be under their team total. I'll play it until it doesn't consistently hit. We've made a ton on this bet this season and even against good competition, it has hit. We pushed on it last week, but that wasn't really his fault, the bullpen allowed a run late. Either way, I'll play it again tonight against the Cardinals. Gonsolin is now 16 starts into this season and hasn't allowed three earned runs in any game. I think this game is almost certain to go under the total of 8.5 so I'll play that too, but I will take the Cardinals under 3.5 as well.

Padres vs. Rockies

Here is another guy that I'm counting on to get under their opponent to under their team total. Joe Musgrove has two games this season in which the opponent has scored 3 or more runs. Only one of those games was four or more runs. Today he faces the Rockies at Coors Field. This is not something you always want to take, but the way he is throwing, contact is coming at a premium. One concern I have about this is he has had a lot of fly balls in the last two games. Either way, he also had a solid six innings of no earned runs allowed. I'll play the Rockies team total under 4.5 at -114.

Some just for fun parlays:

Pirates tt u3, Cardinals tt u3.5, Rockies tt u4.5 +547

Royals, Marlins, Yankees, Rays, Dodgers, Padres ML +1348