MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, May 17, 2022

Just brutal. We only get two of the games in yesterday and both of them had late-inning bullpen collapses. We go 0-2, but honestly, those are the games I prefer to lose (I never want to lose but they will happen). Both were plus money plays, and both were right there, which means the capping strategy is correct, just that the outcomes suck. Also, get well soon to Jake Odorizzi. We move onto today.

Nationals at Marlins

Alright, so there is a dude who is already 1-6 on the season, which, some of you may say “David, who cares about win-loss record, that doesn’t mean anything.” Well, sorry, Charlie, but it still does matter to a certain extent. Maybe if you want to be an uber-stat nerd, and worry about the Cy Young or something, it doesn’t matter. But, this dude, Joan Adon, has allowed 4,6,0,5,4,3,3 earned runs this season. He has only completed the fifth inning twice. Cody Poteet has a ridiculous 0.55 ERA, but he’s basically an opener, not a starter, even still. This sets the Marlins up for success. Play them through five at -115 (three-way option, not moneyline).

Mariners at Blue Jays

I will die on the hill of the Mariners not being a good baseball team. They were lucky last year, this year they are already four games under through a quarter of the season. Can they rebound, sure, but until I see real progress, it is like Jordan in the post – fade away. Logan Gilbert had actually been outstanding before his two most recent starts. He still has a low-2 ERA and has been strong in most contests. Jose Berrios has been… eh? Fine? I guess. I mean his ERA is high, but he’s been okay for the most part. He started bad and has had bad back-to-back starts. He’s slightly better at home, but all this means to me is  both pitchers are likely to allow runs. I’ll play the over 8 today.

Diamondbacks at Dodgers

Merrill Kelly was one of the best ERA pitchers in baseball last week. Then, he went five innings, allowed three earned, and dropped to the seventh-best – still top ten, but it shows just how drastic swings can be when you isolate on one stat. Almost 40% of the hits against Kelly by Dodgers hitters have gone for extra bases. That’s a ton. If they hit him, it will be hard. Maybe he rebounds, but I don’t have faith in this guy, it was a hot start and nothing more. Play Dodgers team total over.