MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, April 12, 2022

1-1 day yesterday with a postponement in the Pirates vs. Cardinals game. Some teams have now gone through their entire rotation, and are back at the top, while others are still on their first round through. As the data gets more available, the more confident we should be.

Guardians vs. Reds

Maybe I'll have egg on my face for this one, but I am shocked at how well Tyler Mahle performed in the season opener against the Braves. I don't have much confidence in him at all, but against the Braves, he went five strong innings allowing just three hits and one unearned run. Today he goes up against Shane Bieber who also had a nice outing, but ultimately the Guardians lost the game. Joey Votto has been fairly successful against Bieber, but the Reds overall are not. I am not sure that the Guardians offense is going to supply enough runs to help Bieber win on the run line, but I'll take them on the moneyline for the full game (that way they can hit the Reds bullpen if they can't get to Mahle) at -112.

Mets vs. Phillies

Last season, Zack Wheeler was a Cy Young favorite for a short period of time. I thought it was a little overblown, but it ultimately didn't matter as he didn't win anyway. He was very successful last year, no doubt. Against the Mets, he was excellent, posting a 2.10 ERA in five starts. If he can keep Pete Alonso at bay, the Mets really should struggle to score runs. Tylor Megill is throwing for the Mets. He had a nice easy start in his opening outing, but the Phillies lineup is a bit more dangerous than the Nationals. I think that this game will be pretty low-scoring though as it might take the Phillies at least one trip through the lineup to figure out Megill. I'll play under 4.5 runs at -112 through the first five innings.