MLB Best Bets for Thursday, September 30, 2021

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We have exactly four days left in the MLB regular season. Let’s see what we can do in these last four days. We’ve swept four consecutive days before, I hope to do it again.

Cubs vs. Pirates

Justin Steele is looking to solidify a place in the Cubs pitching staff – mainly the rotation – for 2022. He’s been fine overall, but nothing to get excited about. He does have very drastic splits though. On the road, he is a 3.10 ERA pitcher, while at home, he is a 6.07 ERA pitcher. He’s only faced the Pirates in two innings this season, so not much to compare to. Miguel Yajure is throwing his third start for the Pirates tonight. In his only home appearance, he went five innings and allowed no runs to the Giants. The other two games he pitched in left me with very little confidence in him. I’m going to take the Cubs moneyline again as I think Steele is likely the better pitcher in this game. (I’d love the first half under 5.5, but at -164, that play isn’t an option to me.)

Rays vs. Astros

Both of these teams have locked up their division and are ready to prepare for the playoffs. This should just be a bit of a tune-up for both. The Rays have the Yankees looming and if they beat them next series, the Blue Jays might get in. Collin McHugh opens for the Rays, this season he has been very good, allowing just 11 earned runs in 62 innings. Astros hitters have seen him just 17 times and he’s allowed just three hits. For the Astros, Lance McCullers Jr. makes his last start of the season. He’s already had one start against the Rays this year, going seven strong innings with no runs allowed. I am not sure that they will let him pitch that much considering they will likely have him be one of the first two starters for the playoffs. I like the bullpens for both games though. Play the game to be an under 8.5 runs at -104.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays

The biggest and most important matchup of the baseball slate happens in Canada. Corey Kluber is no stranger to big games. He threw in three World Series games, including Game 7. Today doesn’t have quite the same “do-or-die” level that the World Series did, but it is important that the Yankees distance themselves from the Blue Jays. Kluber has three starts against the Blue Jays and has allowed six earned runs over 11 innings. Robbie Ray has done as well as could be expected for Toronto this season. Today, he faces a Yankees team that has scored six earned runs off of him in 9.2 innings. In 10 of his last 12 starts, he’s had a quality start. I think both starters command the game and hitters are a bit tight in an important matchup. Play the under 8.5 at -114.