MLB Best Bets for Thursday, September 16, 2021

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We had a clean sweep yesterday, and quite frankly, we needed it. After a few days of what felt like nothing but 1-2 days, it is always nice to get rebounded with a sweep. Let’s keep it rolling.

Cubs vs. Phillies

Kyle Hendricks is the face of the Cubs rotation, and likely will be unless they trade him. This season Hendricks has a 4.54 ERA, but most of the damage against him has been done at Wrigley Field. Hendrick’s road ERA is 3.73 and he’s had very good success against the Phillies hitters, holding them to just a .157 average. Cam Bedrosian is throwing for the Phillies tonight in his first start of the season. He does have 20 appearances under his belt, and he’s been a lot better at home than he has on the road. He’s faced the Cubs hitters just eight times, but none of them have gotten a hit off of him. Starting is different than relieving, and while he has talent, I don’t expect him to go deep into this game. I’m playing the Cubs at +128 because Philly’s bullpen is unreliable at best.

Tigers vs. Rays

On the surface the Rays should easily win this game, after all, they are almost 20 games above .500 at home and the Tigers are nine games below on the road, and they have the vastly superior team. I’m not playing a side, because it costs too much. However, we will play under on the game. Neither of these teams are consistent offensive beasts. Tyler Alexander goes for the Tigers, and he’s fine overall with a 4.09 ERA. In his last start, it was also against the Rays – he threw 4.1 innings and allowed one earned run. Louis Head is starting for the Rays in another one of these “opener” games. Head is sporting a 2.67 ERA and he also threw 1.2 innings against the Tigers without allowing a run. I think in the extended matchup this game should go under the 8 run total at -102.

Astros vs. Rangers

Framber Valdez is easily the better pitcher in this matchup tonight with the Rangers. He is a low-three ERA pitcher with about a strikeout-per-inning average. His last two starts haven’t been great, giving up four earned runs in both of his last outings. Even if he isn’t sharp, I expect the Astros to have a feast against the Rangers tarter Glenn Otto. Otto is starting his fourth game and has allowed 10 earned runs in 13 innings so far. Granted, the first time he ever pitched in the big leagues, he allowed 0 runs and two hits over five innings against the Astros. I expect revenge to happen tonight. I like the Astros team total over 5 runs at -106.