MLB Best Bets for Thursday, June 30, 2022

We've already reached the end of June and we are still sitting pretty from a great MLB season. After we dropped all three plays Tuesday, we sweep Wednesday and get it back. In the words of Freddy Mercury, Don't Stop Me Now.

Braves vs. Phillies

The Braves and Phillies finish off their three-game set with the Braves looking to sweep, and, obviously, the Phillies looking to avoid being swept. In theory, this is the Phillies game to win with Aaron Nola on the hill, but I can't justify taking him at -162. A lot of folks ask me my limit on betting favorites and juice - I don't have much of a limit, but I try to avoid it if I can. Luckily for us, I think this game goes over the total. Ian Anderson has a 3.55 road start ERA and a 5.06 in night games. He also has a 5.06 ERA in June, and last I checked, the calendar hasn't turned yet. He was actually really good against Philly last year, and even better on the road against them, but he doesn't look as good this year as he did last season. Nola at home has had anything but a big easy experience (see what I did there?). He's given up 19 earned in 41.2 innings. He has pitched very well in June aside from a home start against the Giants. I think today is a day for runs. Play the over 8.5.

Rays vs. Blue Jays

We are heading across the border for this one. The Rays come into this having won all five games that Jeffery Springs has started in the month of June. However, they didn't run away with all of them. In fact, three of the five went to extra innings, so he was gone long before a decision was made; one he allowed 4 earned in 4.1 innings. This will be the second time he faces Toronto this year. In the first outing, he went 4.2 innings and allowed just five hits. I do have a concern with him, as the number of fly balls he allows is higher than I like. The Rays face Yusei Kikuchi. He has not been good this season for the Blue Jays. In seven home starts, he's only gone 31.2 innings and has allowed 18 earned runs, including 9 home runs. I'm taking the Rays through five at +115 on DraftKings.

Padres vs. Dodgers

Finally, we come to the last play of the day. Joe Musgrove is coming off of his worst outing of the year, one that I had wrong. He was strong for most of the game against the Phillies before they ultimately knocked the cover off the ball. Now, he takes on the Dodgers and brings his 1.72 road ERA into Los Angeles. He's pitching significantly better than last year, but in two starts on the road last year, he went nine innings and allowed four earned runs, so not great, but not terrible by any means. Mitch White is pitching for the Dodgers, and he is struggling to reach the fifth inning in his starts. Plus the Dodgers are coming from Colorado, where the atmosphere adjustment could be an issue tonight. I'm taking a shot with a Cy Young hopefully over the upstart White and Dodgers. Play Padres +115.