MLB Best Bets for Thursday, July 8th

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Yesterday was a great outcome day. If you bet everything we discussed, you grabbed about five units with a +460 winner and a +170 winner. We lost the Phillies game, but I’ll take those results any day of the week. Let’s try and get the full sweep today.

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks

I was looking through the data and stats, and my eyeballs popped. Chi Chi Gonzalez has a worse ERA on the road than he does at Coors Field. Gonzalez has held Diamondbacks hitters to just .219 in about 50 at-bats against him. Jake Faria has only one start and three appearances at home so far but has a 7.71 ERA. Faria has faced only four Rockies hitters in his career, three of them got a hit including one home run. I think this game gets over the total of 9.5 runs. 

Yankees vs. Mariners

You either love or hate New York, there aren’t too many in-betweeners. Jordan Montgomery must love New York because his away starts have not been very kind to him. Aside from one start against the Rays, he has given up multiple runs in all of his road starts. Logan Gilbert has been better on the road, but unfortunately for him, he will be pitching at home today where his ERA is 5.63. I think this is a complete lock. I hate the cost of it (-170), but the first five innings has a total of 3.5 runs. I’m not playing that. Instead, I’m taking the Mariners to win the first half of the game at +110. 

Nationals vs. Padres

I usually do not recommend betting on games that are “big” or marquee because they usually have attention and value taken away when casual bettors want action on them. Although this game isn’t on national television, I still feel that due to Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish pitching, this game fits the bill. Scherzer should give up one or two runs over six innings. Darvish at home should do about the same. I’m going to play them to get to a draw in the first half at +420 as this should be a pitcher's duel. If I had to lean towards a side, I’d take the Nationals, but I’m going to go for the bigger payout as I see this being 0-0, 1-1, or 2-2 through five innings.