MLB Best Bets for Thursday, July 1st

Very strange day with our bets last night. The Angels jumped out to a lead, then Ohtani got crushed. Then there was a rain delay and we pulled off the victory anyway (and run line if you played it). The Orioles scored four runs in the first to beat our under-three run team total. And, the Tigers and Indians got to eight runs, but couldn’t push across another. 

Giants vs. Diamondbacks

The Giants have been baseball’s most surprising team this year. They are currently leading the NL West by 1.5 games, and while it isn’t a surprise that the Dodgers might have a bit of the World Series hangover, this is pretty significant to do halfway through the season. Anyway, about tonight, Cueto pitches for them and he performs worse on the road. The Diamondbacks are also batting .274 against him and got four runs against him last time he pitched against them. Merrill Kelly held the Padres in check last time he pitched but has a 6.00 ERA against the Giants in two starts against them this year. I’m going to play the Giants in this one at -138. 

Marlins vs. Phillies

The Marlins have Pablo Lopez pitching for them tonight, he has been one of their bright spots this year. However, he is significantly less reliable on the road, sporting a 4.10 ERA. In one game against the Phillies this year, Lopez pitched seven innings of two-run ball. Zach Elfin has thrown against the Marlins twice this year and has given up five earned so far. Miami hitters are batting .308 against him. At home though, Elfin has been much better. He has a 2.13 ERA at home. Play the Phillies to win the game at -125.

Cardinals vs. Rockies

Adam Wainwright goes for the Cardinals, but he faces the Rockies at Coors where they are 12 games above .500. He’s actually won his last four games he started there and in his last game, he gave up no earned runs. This year, though, he has been brutal on the road giving up almost as many earned runs on the road as he has at home despite pitching 32 less innings on the road. Antonio Senzatela has been hit to the tune of .371 by the Cardinals hitters lifetime. Aside from two games, he’s given up multiple runs in every start. I still think the Rockies are the better side based on Wainwright’s road struggles. I’m going to take the Rockies at home at +106.