MLB Best Bets for Saturday, September 4, 2021

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Another tough night, we broke about even if you played the lean on the Angels under. In any case, we lose two of three and look to do better today.

Cardinals vs. Brewers

I normally don’t think line movement is the end-all, be-all, but there are times that make you really consider which side you want to be on. With a football game, it usually moves over the course of a week or right before a game. With this baseball game, it was all overnight and the movement is showing the Cardinals opening as a +143 underdog and now are down to just +110. The Brewers are hitting righties and lefties at basically the same clip, and face a lefty in Kwang Hyun Kim today. Kim has held Brewers hitters to a .137 average against him. On the other side, Adrian Houser pitches for the Brewers, and Cardinals hitters are batting .288 against him.  I don’t love the line movement, because I don’t see much of a reasoning for it. I expect it to be a close game and the Brewers have a better bullpen. I’m playing the game to be under 8.5 runs at -115.

Braves vs. Rockies

German Marquez is actually pitching fairly well, and he pitches better at Coors Field than on the road. He’s had a bit of a rough patch over his last four outings, but the best of those performances has been the one home start. Braves hitters are 21 for 64 against the Rockies hurler with five home runs. Ian Anderson has been consistent across his splits and has been good both the first and second time through a lineup. The Rockies are nine games under .500, but they are 21 games over at Coors Field. One reason I like the Braves to win this game is that Anderson is not a fly ball pitcher, he is pretty balanced overall. I’m going to take the Braves at -118.

Astros vs. Padres

If you had Joe Musgrove for “Padres Ace” this season, you probably should buy a lotto ticket. After investing in Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, Musgrove has been by far the most consistent of the trio. Tonight, he faces the Astros in a matchup for two World Series hopefuls. His ERA at home and at night are both under 2.50 and he is coming off of a complete game shutout. He’s only had one bad performance in his last six starts – a span where he allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of the six games. Framber Valdez is no slouch on the hill either. Padres hitters haven’t seen much of him, but are batting just .100 against him in their limited appearances. He has a slightly higher ERA on the road and at night, but he is still performing well including a streak of four consecutive quality starts. I think this game will be one where runs will be hard to come by. Play under 7.5 runs at -122. I do think the first half goes over 3.5 runs if you’re interested in a sprinkle.

Fun player props: