MLB Best Bets for Saturday, September 11, 2021

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With college football on the docket today, many will turn their attention away from the baseball games and look to play NCAAF (we shared our picks already so check them out on Outkick Bets) but that means we might have a good opportunity to grab some lines that aren’t being focused on as much in baseball. Let’s get to it!

Rays vs. Tigers

It’s Casey Mize day! You know what that means. Every five-ish days, I write about how he is a leader in first five innings profitability. Every five days something good happens even if the Tigers don’t win we can use Mize’s reliability to find a play that makes a difference for us. Mize has only been faced by Nelson Cruz, so he should have a decent time going through the Rays lineup the first time through. Chris Archer has faced basically two batters on the Tigers a bunch of times and then a few others a couple of times. I think this is a good opportunity to play the Tigers to win the first five innings on the moneyline at +116. The value is pretty low, but I am confident that it provides good potential to win. I would even be willing to sprinkle them to win the game at +130. I’m also going to put a shekel on Jonathan Schoop to hit a homer at +410 (he has 6 of his 14 hits off Archer for home runs).

Nationals vs. Pirates

To be really clear, the Dodgers got the best two players in the trade with the Nationals. But, Josiah Gray had been a pretty nice return until his last two starts. He now gets a chance to right the ship against the hapless Pirates of Pittsburgh. Gray has never faced them and I feel like that may be to his advantage even if the hitters have more video of him pitching from other games. For the Pirates, Wil Crowe had an equally terrible outing in his last start, giving up seven runs in just three innings. He has been better at home than he has on the road, but it isn’t by that much. I think that this game favors the Nationals. I can’t suggest a play on the total because I feel like both starters should be good enough to get through five innings with keeping the under in play… then the bullpens come in and who knows. Play the Nationals to win the game at -134.

Brewers vs. Indians

The Brewers have one of the better pitching staffs in all of baseball, and while most of the players don’t have the name recognition of a Jacob deGrom or Gerrit Cole, they still are very effective. Corbin Burnes goes tonight for the Brew Crew and he at one point was arguably the second-best pitcher in the National League. Zach Pleasac pitches for the Indians and he’s having his worst season so far. Pleasac has a 4.53 ERA, giving up 20 home runs on the season. The Brewers haven’t ever faced him with the exception of a couple of hitters, but the problem really has been the second time through the lineup against Pleasac. That’s where the damage gets done. Play the Brewers to win this game by more than 1.5 runs at -120. I’m also sprinkling a tie after three innings at +265.