MLB Best Bets for Saturday, May 28, 2022

Not the best day yesterday as we go 1-2. I definitely did not see the Mariners beating Verlander. I was probably more confident in that bet than the other two I shared. We move to Saturday and are now 10-5-2 on the week. Let's close a profitable week on a positive note.

Dodgers at Diamondbacks

A couple of weeks ago, Merrill Kelly was among the league leaders in ERA. Now he is 31st in the league and it seems a little more normal based on his career. If you look to his splits, you see that most of the damage has been done on the road. Today he gets to pitch at home. Then, you look at his starts against the Dodgers and see he has allowed 11 earned runs in eight innings. In fairness to him, he allowed eight in two innings at LA, and only three in six innings in Arizona. This all might not matter as the Diamondbacks are very unlikely to score against Tony Gonsolin. Then again, the Diamondbacks have put up four earned runs against him this year. The other six teams he has faced have scored three earned runs against him combined. I still think that the Dodgers win by 2 or more (-113).

Yankees at Rays

Years ago, this would’ve been a matchup that you’d want to watch live if you’re into pitching duels. One half of the matchup has slowed down quite a bit, and the other is still a yearly Cy Young candidate. Gerrit Cole is throwing for the Yankees and he’s been pretty much what you’d expect. After five consecutive quality starts, the Orioles hit him pretty well last start. The Rays have had success against Cole so don’t count them out in this one. Corey Kluber is throwing for the Rays and he has been hit hard by current Yankees hitters. I think this game has more runs than you’d expect. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rays won the game. I'll take a shot at +116.

Pirates at Padres

Joe Musgrove has started eight games for the Padres this season and all eight games have resulted in Padres victories. Currently, the Padres aren’t hitting great. This might be a game for them to break out though. Musgrove should keep rolling – he recently faced the Pirates and allowed just one earned run over seven innings. He also has eight consecutive quality starts to start the season. The Pirates really don’t stand a chance. I’m taking the Padres to win by 2 or more runs and also going to play the Pirates under 2.5 runs.