MLB Best Bets for Monday, October 11, 2021

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We are back to a full four games today for the MLB. Yesterday, we ended at 1-1. If you watched the games, you know both had a controversial play, but you also know that this is officially fun playoff baseball. Let’s get some winners.

Brewers vs. Braves

Freddy Peralta was great for the Brewers this season and a big reason the Brewers are where they are right now. Peralta ended the season with a 2.81 ERA, but over the last two months, his ERA has been over 4.70. He did face the Braves once this season and had a phenomenal outing of no runs allowed over six innings with just two hits. Ian Anderson tries to take the series lead for the Braves. He had a good year as well, but also ended this year’s campaign with a 4.39 September ERA. He faced the Brewers once and allowed one earned run over six innings and two hits. Both pitchers are showing really good lifetime averages against the opposition. I’m playing the under 8 at -115 and hoping that the rough September is behind both pitchers.

Astros vs. White Sox

At one point a few years ago, Carlos Rodon of the White Sox was the worst pitcher in baseball by certain metrics. This year, Rodon was an all-star, former Cy Young candidate. He’s done great overall for the White Sox, the only split that I have a bit of concern about is the day-time 3.18 ERA – which isn’t bad, but it is higher than any other split he has. He faced the Astros twice this season, only allowing four hits and one earned run over 14 innings. I’m not sure that Jose Urquidy is the pitcher the Astros want on the mound for them today, but it is who they have. He doesn’t have particularly good numbers, but he is a fine regular-season starter. He faced the White Sox once this season and was good - over seven innings, he allowed just four hits and two earned runs. I picked the Astros to win this series 3-1, which means they need to win today. Unfortunately, I can’t back Urquidy, so I’ll play the White Sox at -130.

Rays vs. Red Sox

Basically, this comes down to the Rays bullpen vs. the Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez. The Rays are used to bullpen games, they have one at least once every five days essentially. They posted the third-best bullpen ERA in the Majors at 3.29. They allowed two runs over 10.1 innings in yesterday’s game. That is a bit concerning only because they could be a bit tired today. The good thing is they play Eduardo Rodriguez, carrier of a 5.95 home ERA. He faced Tampa four times this season and allowed 23 hits over 21 innings. Those hits resulted in 11 earned runs, posting a 4.71 ERA. So, again, do I like the Rays ‘pen or Rodriguez more? I think the Rays even up the series tonight and take this game. Play them at -108.