MLB Best Bets for Monday, May 16, 2022

Let’s start with the good news… We were profitable yesterday. We go 2-1 with two pretty easy ones. The bad news is that not only was I off about my guy Rodon, I was WAY off. I had under 3.5 runs for the Cardinals and they had four runs by the end of the first inning.

Astros at Red Sox

Monday’s are always interesting because they typically start a new series and that gives you a new perspective and look. Sure, sometimes you can say that a team is on a hot streak or something, but it still is a new strategy from the previous three or so games you looked at. For this one, Jake Odorizzi is going for the Astros. He’s been very good the last three games, allowing six hits and just one earned run in his past 16.2 innings. He’s had historic success against the Red Sox as well. The Astros hitters, coming off a nice, easy win, face Garrett Whitlock. He’s been treated more like an opener than anything, but his last two starts/opens, whatever you want to call it, have not been good. I think the goal is to stretch him out, but it doesn’t seem to be working. In any case, this game should be a win for the Astros at +108, that’s the way to play this one.

Cardinals at Mets

The Cardinals played last night at home. I don’t like taking a team that has to travel the next day from a Sunday Night Game on ESPN. There is no rest opportunity for them, and even with the blowout, the travel is still late, you’re usually not ready. But, good news for them, they have Miles Mikolas going for them. Mikolas has held Mets hitters to under a .100 batting average against him, and this year has been great. He currently sits with a 1.49 ERA. Trevor Williams still hasn’t seen the last out of the fourth inning this season. Even a tired Cardinals team should take care of business. I’ll play Mets under 4 runs for their team total.

Giants at Rockies

This is a really similar reason, but this time, the pitching matchup doesn’t save the teams. The Giants travel to Colorado after the night game in St. Louis. It isn’t a ridiculous trip, but think of the body clock and change. The Rockies have been sitting at home already so they should be more prepared. Plus, the Rockies at home are just better. Alex Wood has been fine this year, and been fine against the Rockies. Maybe he keeps the game close. Antonio Senzatela has been great for the Rockies, provided he pitches at Coors Field. He’s only allowed five earned in 19 innings. I’m taking the Rockies at +130.