MLB Best Bets for Monday, July 5th

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Hope everyone had a wonderful and safe 4th of July. We return to our three best bets in Major League Baseball for today, July 5th. 

Phillies vs. Cubs

The Cubs are in a brutal stretch right now. They’ve lost nine games in a row and have had only two games during that stretch where they scored above four runs (and one of those came in a game they had a seven-run first and lost 15-7). But, was there anything in common with the offensive futility that they are experiencing? Yes, they were all road games. At home, the Cubs are 26-13. They also are hitting 32 points higher against lefties than righties. Tonight, they open a game against the Phillies and they face Philly lefty Matt Moore. Take the Cubs to finally win a game at -144. Bonus sprinkle, Anthony Rizzo is 5-for-6 with 2 homers against Moore. Looks like the wind is blowing out to right field today, too. I’ll be looking for his odds to hit a homer today, which should be in the +200 range. 

Tigers vs. Rangers

Wily Peralta goes today for the Tigers against the Rangers in Arlington. He only has a few starts under his belt this season, and he hasn’t given up an earned run in any start aside from a start against the Angles where he gave up five earned runs. Kolby Allard pitches for the Rangers and carries a 3.14 ERA at home. He’s had a very respectable season and has yet to face the Tigers. I’m confident in the first five innings being under 5.5 runs, but the price is a bit high for a five-inning total (-148). I’m instead going to play the under on the total runs for the game, as I expect the pitchers to likely have the edge in this game. Play under 9 runs at -104.

Cardinals vs. Giants

Kevin Gausman for the Giants is the most profitable first five-inning pitcher in all of baseball this season. The price to play him on the moneyline? -205. And, even more of a challenge is that the run line through five innings is the Giants -1.5 runs. I can’t play any of that. It just doesn’t make sense, even though I would lean on the Giants to cover that run spread. Gausman should do what he’s been doing this season, which is give up about two runs. Kwang Hyun Kim has given up runs in every start for the Cardinals but hasn’t had many where the game was out of control. The Giants have a great bullpen. The Cardinals' is not as strong. I’m going to play the Giants to win and the game to be under 7.5 runs at +190. I feel like the Giants win this game, the total is the harder side. 5-2, or 4-3 seems like the right score for this game to me.