MLB Best Bets for Friday, September 24, 2021

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We had a nice underdog winner with the Angels, but Scherzer let us down, as did the Phillies/Pirates. Let’s get the money back today with a sweep.

Nationals vs. Reds

It is that time for the Reds, they either need to step up big time or pack their bags for another year of missing the playoffs. Sonny Gray takes the mound today and has been consistent over his last four starts, allowing less than three earned runs. The Reds have lost the last three Gray starts, but it is mostly due to a lack of run support, not due to his pitching. For the Nationals, Paolo Espino has allowed 12 runs over his last 31.1 innings. Espino hasn’t faced the Reds much, so unfortunately there isn’t enough history there to judge. The two teams aren’t world beaters though. None of the games between the two of them have gone over eight runs, I expect today to be the same, play under 8.5 at -110.

Blue Jays vs. Twins

Jose Berrios returns to face his former mates as the Blue Jays take on the Twins. Berrios has a beautiful five consecutive quality start streak on the line tonight. He also has a 3.29 ERA at Target Field, so he is more than comfortable pitching there. The Twins hitters are batting just .181 against him and he has allowed just three extra-base hits against him (all of them are doubles). If the Twins don’t get to him in the first couple of innings, they likely won't all game. Play the Twins under 3.5 runs at -104.

Royals vs. Tigers

Case Mize is back on the mound and he is still on an innings limit as they protect their investment in the former first overall draft pick. As you are probably aware from my other posts, Mize is a top pitcher in profitability from the first five innings this year. Today he faces a Royals team that has hit him well in two of his four starts against them. The Royals combat him with Carlos Hernandez who is having a decent season. As an away starter, he has a 2.60 ERA. He, too, has had mixed results against the Tigers hitters this year. I’m going to take my shot on Mize holding the Royals down enough and them winning on the moneyline at -114.