MLB Best Bets for Friday, July 16th

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A COVID outbreak or tracing or something washed away any plays we had yesterday, but today we return to a full slate of MLB games and an opportunity to turn a triple play with our three best MLB Bets for July 16th. 

Rangers vs. Blue Jays

Robbie Ray takes the bump for the Blue Jays to start the “second half” of the season for Toronto. He has the pleasure of facing the Texas Rangers who have had 28 at-bats against him in their collective careers and have gotten a total of two hits. That accounts for a .037 batting average, but keep in mind, small sample size, and two of the players account for 20 of the 28 at-bats. Jordan Lyles of the Rangers has pitched fairly well his last five starts, posting four quality starts. He has seen only a few Blue Jays in his career, so that may bode well for him the first time through the lineup. Though hitters actually fare worse each time through the lineup against Lyles, so who knows. I don’t expect runs to be scored off either pitcher tonight but think the Blue Jays win, so I’m playing a double result of the Blue Jays and under 10.5 runs at +150.

Padres vs. Nationals

Chris Paddack for the Padres has been one of the least profitable first five inning pitchers in all of baseball this season. He has a 5.58 ERA on the season and is really struggling to put together consistent starts since about May. Erick Fedde of the Nationals isn’t going to intimidate anyone, really. But, he has been serviceable most of the season, even though lately he has been hit hard. Padres hitters have a .204 average against him in 46 at-bats, so they are struggling a bit against him. I’m playing the Nationals to win the first half of the game at +128, and this is mostly just a fade of Paddack.

Astros vs. White Sox

The White Sox at home are a force. They are 19 games above .500 overall, and 17 games above at home, so clearly they do damage in the comfort of their own stadium. Dylan Cease is one of those players who really loves being on his home mound – his road ERA is 6.27, but his home ERA is 1.81. Lance McCullers has been very good this year with an ERA under 3, and there really isn’t any drastic difference between home and road splits. He’s letting the White Sox hitters get a hit once every four at-bats on average. I am leaning towards the under, but I think instead, I will keep with plus money plays and go for the White Sox to win at +118.   

Combine all three if you want to take a Pete Alonso moon shot and you’ll be at +1131 for total odds.