Mitch Keller Will Rebound To Dominate Nationals

Pirates vs. Nationals, 6:45 ET

I woke up this morning and looked at the scores from the previous night of baseball and thought, "Dang, the Padres lost to the Cardinals. There is my first loss of the season for Outkick." Nope. I was wrong, see at the end of five innings, the Padres were up 2-1, and I bet on them to be winning at the end of five, not to win the game. You may ask how I forget about something like that, and frankly, I don't have a great answer other than I get busy, and it can be hard to mentally remember every bet I make exactly as I make it each day.  Still, this now runs my record to 6-0 for Outkick articles and I'm anxiously looking for number seven today as the Pirates take on the Nationals. 

Pittsburgh is off to a hot start this season and currently sits with a 5-0 record. They played against Miami and Washington, so let's not crown them as the next Dodgers or something, but still, they are beating the competition they should beat. The team is hitting an eye-popping .302 collectively and has scored 39 runs in five games. Their team earned run average is solid to this point at 3.67. Opponents are only hitting .208 against their staff which would be a great number to keep up. The reality is that none of these numbers will stay where they are now, but the Pirates should try and ride this as long as they can. The Rays ran a hot start to a postseason berth last year. Why can't the Buccos? They have a very good chance to go 6-0 today as they run out their Ace, (for now as Paul Skenes may end up in the majors at some point this season) Mitch Keller, in today's game. Keller was not great in the season opener as he allowed four earned runs over 5.2 innings, but the Pirates escaped with an extra-inning victory. The Nationals have been fairly decent against Keller in the past, going 14-for-49 with Eddie Rosario and Jesse Winker having eight of those hits in a combined 18 at-bats. 

The Nationals are not expected to do much this season and are off to a 1-3 start. Their only win came in a game against the Reds where they pulled off a 7-6 win. The hitters are actually doing a decent job early with a .252 average and 18 runs in four games. Over the course of the season, that would be decent production from your offense. The biggest issue, no surprise here, is their pitching staff. Even early on a 7.27 ERA as a club is very high. They are also allowing opponents to hit .340 against them. Their WHIP, as a staff, is also 1.82 which is also something they need to adjust. That means they are allowing almost two runners on per inning. Today they have Trevor Williams taking the hill in his first start of the season. The former Pirate had a 5.55 ERA last season over 30 starts. There are six Pirate hitters with experience against Williams, and they are 6-for-19 collectively. The good news for Williams is that he hasn't ever allowed an extra-base hit to any of them, and he has struck out five while walking just two. 

Most of my handicapping comes down to pitching and the reality is that the Nationals pitching staff is struggling right out of the gate. Keller isn't the most reliable or best pitcher in the world, but he can probably get the job done. The Pirates should get the job done here against the Nationals and I expect them to win over the first five innings -0.5 at -115. Take them and let's get to 7-0.

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