Mispriced Line Gives Us An Opportunity For Nice Pay Day

Diamondbacks vs. Braves, 7:20 ET

I started the season with a great 7-0 streak, but then dropped the next four plays. It wasn’t a fun stretch and I can’t say that I was happy about the results, but I did mention it would eventually happen that I would lose. Over the course of the season there will be ups and downs and you have to ride them out. It isn’t an ideal situation, and the goal is always to make money. I hate days where we go 0-2, but they will happen just like the 2-0 days. Tonight, I’m looking to lock in on the game between the Diamondbacks and the Braves. 

The Diamondbacks, last year’s World Series runner up have a lot to be excited about this season. I would expect that their hitting will be one of the better lineups in the division, and I think they probably have the best pitching staff in the division. What I like about their lineup is they have a good balance of contact and power. For pitching, the staff is stacked with two pitchers that could be Aces on a lot of teams and a nice supporting cast. This all isn’t much of a shock this season as most people didn’t have the Diamondbacks on their radar last season, but this season they will have a target on their backs. Tonight, they are sending out Brandon Pfaadt to the hill. He was very good for them in the playoffs last season. In 22 innings, he allowed just eight earned runs and had two scoreless outings. Pfaadt has never faced Braves hitters so he should have an edge the first time through the lineup as they try to figure him out. In his first start of the season, he went five innings and allowed just five hits and one earned run against the Rockies. The Rockies are a crappy team though, facing the Braves could be a much different story. 

Mar 30, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried (54) leaves the game against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

The Braves were the best team in baseball all of last season, but they ultimately fell short in the playoffs. Atlanta essentially ran it back this season. Why wouldn’t they? They were collectively, and individually, great last year. They are hitting well already to start the season, and have put up a good number of runs in their games. Somehow, it still feels like this is a bit of a slow start for them. What should be scary for the rest of the league is that the Braves might be even better and their hitters will get more locked in as the season progresses. There really aren’t holes in this lineup. Their pitching staff seems like it could be one of the better in baseball as well, but I’d say the lineup is better than the pitching. Today they have a great one going in Max Fried. Fried is one of my choices as a potential Cy Young winner. If he pitches anything like he did in the first game… he will have no chance. Fried allowed three earned runs on two hits and three walks in just two-thirds of an inning. The Braves still won the game 12-4. This should be a better performance than Fried.   

This line is a little disrespectful to the Diamondbacks if we are being honest. I get it to a certain extent, the Braves are a very good offense, they are at home, Fried is a really good pitcher who should rebound from a bad start. That doesn't meant that they should be -128 favorites here though. As much as I hate to bet against the Braves, the value is completely with the Diamondbacks in this game at +180 to win. It may be one of those "Well, that was a stupid bet." in retrospect games, but I'm taking the Diamondbacks to win. This game is mispriced and hopefully we can get the underdog here. 

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