Can Timberwolves Even 2025 Western Conference Finals Vs. Thunder? Game 2 Best Bets, Picks, Odds

Published•Updated

The Oklahoma City Thunder came into the 2025 Western Conference Finals' opener sluggish but rallied back from a first-half deficit to blow the doors off the Minnesota Timberwolves 114-88 on Tuesday. OKC is a -7.5 favorite for Game 2 on a 217-ish total. The Thunder closed as -7 favorites on a 219.5 total for Game 1. 

We saw why I don't bet quarters or first halves generally on Tuesday. I took Oklahoma City -4 in the first half, which of course closed at -4.5, giving me the overrated "closing line value." But, to my dismay, OKC didn't wake up until the second half, covered the full-game spread, and my bet lost. It feels like that happens whenever I bet quarters or first halves. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 31 points and was named the 2024-25 NBA MVP on Wednesday. SGA out-dueled Anthony Edwards, who scored only 18 points on 38.5% shooting, and Oklahoma City won three of the "four factors" in Game 1: Shooting, turnover margin, and free-throw differential. 

Keep on reading for my pick for Timberwolves-Thunder Game 2 and my favorite player prop for Thursday. 

Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Game 2 Odds 

Shooting variance is my biggest angle for Timberwolves-Thunder Game 2. Minnesota went 29.4% from behind the arc in Game 1 (15-for-51), whereas Oklahoma City shot 52.4% on 3-balls (11-for-21). T-Wolves stretch-4 Naz Reid went 0-for-7 from behind the arc and SG Donte DiVincenzo was 3-for-12. 

Furthermore, Minnesota attempted 17 more wide-open 3-pointers than OKC Tuesday (30-13). "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter is 6+ feet from the nearest defender. In Game 1, the Thunder hit 76.9% of their wide-open threes and the Timberwolves made 26.7% of them. 

However, if the T-Wolves get that many more wide-open looks in Game 2, they are covering the spread. Minnesota was fourth in 3-point shooting rate during the regular season and sixth defensively. Since games get away from teams that chuck as many threes as the Timberwolves, I'm not overreacting to their 26-point loss on Tuesday. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Oklahoma City Thunder Thursday for Game 2 of the 2025 Western Conference Finals. (Photo credit: Brett Rojo-Imagn Images)

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Oklahoma City Thunder Thursday for Game 2 of the 2025 Western Conference Finals. (Photo credit: Brett Rojo-Imagn Images)

Also, I could see Shai getting fewer foul calls on Thursday because everyone calls him a "foul merchant." Perhaps the officiating crew for Game 2 will make it their mission to not get baited by SGA into blowing the whistle. Or maybe the T-Wolves make defensive adjustments. Edwards, Timberwolves wing Jaden McDaniels, and C Rudy Gobert are elite defenders. 

Minnesota PF Julius Randle's Game 1 performance was pleasantly surprising. Even though I'm a Knicks fan who loved Randle when he played in New York, I thought he'd struggle against Thunder bigs Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. But, Julius scored a team-high 28 points on 13 shots, hitting 5-of-6 from deep in Game 1. 

The T-Wolves will be in good shape if Randle plays like that again on Thursday. I'm betting Randle's OVER 1.5 MADE 3-POINTERS for Game 2 because he should continue to get wide-open looks. Oklahoma City was 23rd in 3-point attempts allowed per game during the regular season and Julius is shooting 39.3% on threes in the playoffs. 

Timberwolves-Thunder Game 2 Betting Card: 

  • Timberwolves +7.5 (-112), down to +6, via DraftKings, risking 1.12 units (u).
  • Minnesota PF Julius Randle OVER 1.5 made 3-pointers (-110), up to -135, via DraftKings, risking 0.55u.

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.