Is It Wise To Bet Milwaukee Bucks Ending Cleveland Cavaliers' Win Streak Sunday?

The Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Milwaukee Bucks Sunday at 8 p.m. ET. Cleveland is 3-0 straight up (SU) and 2-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. Milwaukee in their first three meetings this season. Two of the Cavs' wins were by a combined three points and the other was a 23-point rout. 

However, Cleveland was at full strength for all those games and the Bucks were missing All-Star PG Damian Lillard in their blowout loss. Dame is scoring 38.5 points on 72.0% true shooting (.522/.625/1.000) in his two games against the Cavaliers. Having Lillard back makes a big difference. 

Also, the Cavs were +2 underdogs in Milwaukee in their first game vs. the Bucks November 2, and -8.5 for their two meetings in Cleveland afterward. While the Cavaliers have solidified themselves as the second-best team in the East behind the reigning NBA champion Boston Celtics, -8 in Milwaukee is a big number. 

Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks Odds (DraftKings) 

• Moneyline: Cleveland (-290) | MILWAUKEE (+235)
• ATS: Cavaliers -6.5 (-112) | BUCKS +6.5 (-108)
• Total — 240.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Perhaps I'm "buying low" on the Bucks, who lost 111-109 at home to the 30-35 Orlando Magic Friday. But, I'm chalking that up as a lucky win for Orlando, which hit one more 3-pointer in that game. The Magic are the worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA, Milwaukee is fifth in defensive 3-point rate since the All-Star break and second offensively for the full season. 

Honestly, I'm worried I'm getting to the Bucks late because they opened as +9 underdogs, and they're down to +6.5 at most sportsbooks. "Milwaukee +6.5" could also be considered a "sucker bet" since it's suspicious a team that good is getting that many points at home. And "that many points" isn't that many in today's NBA featuring 3-point shootouts. 

Milwaukee Bucks PG Damian Lillard drives to the basket against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Fiserv Forum. (Photo credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images)

Nonetheless, I'm firing on the Bucks because there should be a "playoff-like atmosphere" in the Fiserv Forum, and I'd take Milwaukee +6.5 at home against Cleveland if this were a playoff series. Furthermore, this is a rare game where Cleveland doesn't have an edge in the frontcourt. 

Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo will probably finish third in NBA MVP voting, and he averages 31.3 points in seven games vs. the betting favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, Cavaliers PF Evan Mobley. Milwaukee C Brook Lopez and Cleveland C Jarrett Allen cancel each other out. 

Finally, the betting market is underrating the Bucks. They are 7-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS since the NBA All-Star Game with a victory over a healthy Denver Nuggets. Then again, I've underrated the Cavs this whole season, so they'll probably destroy the Bucks Sunday. 

Prediction: Milwaukee 120, Cleveland 118 

• My move here is to risk 1.1 units (u) on the Bucks +6.5 (-108) and sprinkle 0.25u on their +235 moneyline at DraftKings.

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