Chicago Cubs Got Their Win But Milwaukee Brewers Are Ending 2025 NLDS In Game 4
Milwaukee looks to finish off Chicago Thursday behind Freddy Peralta’s arm and a bullpen that’s been lights-out this postseason.
The Chicago Cubs (1-2) prevented a sweep Wednesday with a 4-3 win over the Milwaukee Brewers (2-1) in Game 3 of the 2025 National Division League Series. Chicago hopes to stave off elimination again when it hosts Milwaukee at Wrigley Field for Game 4 at 9:08 p.m. ET.
Brewers-Cubs Game 4 has the same starting pitching matchup as the NLDS opener: Milwaukee RHP Freddy Peralta vs. Chicago LHP Matthew Boyd. Cubs 1B Michael Busch hit a leadoff home run vs. Peralta in the 1st inning, but it was all Brew Crew after. The Brewers chased Boyd early with a six-run 1st inning and won Game 1, 9-3.
After Busch went yard, Peralta settled in, though, fanning nine Cubs across 5.2 innings, and allowing just one more solo home run. Before leaving the game with an injury, Milwaukee LF Jackson Chourio went 3-for-3 with a double and a three-run bomb. Chourio is hitting .545 in this series (6-for-11) with six RBI.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs Game 4 Betting Odds
Going back to the starting pitching matchup, the Brewers have dominated Boyd this year. He's given up 11 ERs (15 total runs) with nine walks and just six strikeouts in 11 innings across three starts against Milwaukee in 2025. Conversely, Peralta is 4-1 in his last five starts vs. Chicago this season with a 3.38 ERA.
Furthermore, all of Peralta's advanced pitching numbers against active Cubs are better than Boyd's vs. current Brewers. According to Statcast, Peralta's expected slash line is .189/.298/.350 in 228 plate appearances (PA) against Chicago hitters, while Boyd has a .224/.301/.389 expected slash line in 93 PA vs. Milwaukee batters.
Ultimately, postseason baseball comes down to pitching, and the Brewers have an edge in that department. Milwaukee's relievers have given up one ER in 18.0 innings pitched in this series. Both teams used five relievers in Game 3 Wednesday, but the Brewers have a deeper bullpen.
They have been the MLB team I've profited from most this season, and I'm pissed I don't have a "Milwaukee to win a 2025 NL Pennant" bet in my account. I bet the Brewers to win the NL Central at the beginning of the season and doubled down on them to win their division after the All-Star break. Perhaps I'm chasing value, but I'm betting the Brew Crew Thursday with "house money".
Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers -120 moneyline (up to -130) in Game 4
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