Mikolas Road Struggles Will Give Padres The Win

Cardinals vs. Padres, 9:40 ET

I've written five articles for Outkick this MLB season and I've gone 5-0. It has been a good start to the year for betting, but it has also been an interesting start with the first no-hitter already being thrown. That's a good start to the year for one pitcher, and now we get the rotations flipping over for the first time as a lot of these teams are playing in their sixth game. That means that we are getting a lot of aces squaring off tonight. Tonight, I'm going to lock in on two teams that underperformed last season - the Cardinals and the Padres - as they square off in San Diego. 

The St. Louis Cardinals were hot garbage last season. It was embarrassing as they took my money over and over again, from futures to daily plays, I kept putting my faith in them and they were awful. I didn't place a bet on them this season partially due to PTSD and partially due to the fact that I still think their pitching will be an issue. On the young season, the Cardinals are 2-3 having had to face the Dodgers in a four-game set to open the year and now the Padres. The only game that the Cardinals stole from the Dodgers was a 6-5 extra-inning victory. Yesterday, they took down a 6-2 win over the Padres. Tonight, they look to get to .500 and send out Miles Mikolas to the mound. Mikolas has made me a bit of money over the years, but he was one of the main culprits to let me down last season. He was inconsistent, or if you want to be harsh, he was consistently bad. Outside of May, he went a lot of innings, but he allowed a bunch of runs. He faced San Diego once last season. The Cardinals won that game 5-4 and Mikolas went six innings and allowed just three earned runs. He has a fairly decent track record against Padres hitters in limited at-bats. In essentially every season, Mikolas has been worse on the road than at home. He started against the Dodgers this season and allowed five earned runs (two home runs) in 4.1 innings. 

Sep 21, 2023; St. Louis, Missouri, USA;  St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas (39) looks on after giving up a solo home run to Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Blake Perkins (16) during the third inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres also underperformed last season, and if we are being honest, it was more embarrassing than the Cardinals. The Padres had a ton of great players and couldn't get the job done. Sure Fernando Tatis Jr. was dealing with a suspension, but Juan Soto, Mammy Machado, and Xander Bogaerts were all in the lineup daily, and they still couldn't get the job done. Soto is now gone, but they still have a good roster. Their starting pitching is down Blake Snell and Michael Wacha, but they traded for Dylan Cease. All of this to say that they are trying to remain competitive and mixing up the pieces to see what works. Tonight they have one of their more reliable players, Yu Darvish, taking the mound. Darvish has made two starts already on the young season (remember, the Padres and Dodgers played two games in Korea to start the year). He's only allowed one earned run this season over the 8.2 innings that he has pitched. Darvish has faced a lot of the Cardinals hitters from his time with the Cubs. He has allowed 30 hits over 99 at-bats, including three home runs. Nolan Arenado tends to get the best of him with eight hits in 20 at-bats and three home runs. He has only faced them once as a member of the Padres and allowed five earned runs over 7.2 innings in a game played in St. Louis. 

Darvish seems like a guy who is easier to hit if he is seen more often. I've also noticed that he is much more comfortable pitching in certain places than others. It isn't always at home, and it isn't always on the road. Mikolas clearly is not as good of a pitcher on the road as he is at home. That could be a routine issue or something, but the track record is there. The Padres should be able to get the best of Mikolas and they have the better pitcher. I'm taking the Padres -0.5 through five innings at -105. For clarification, a moneyline bet is safer but -150 and I try not to put anything out at -135 or higher.