Might Be A Sweat, But Saint Mary's Should Prevail

Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's, 11:30 ET

I was being an idiot the other day and threw in a parlay. It wasn't anything crazy, just more of a hunch. I took nothing but home teams, and all of them were favorites of at least 10 points. It is pretty logical as home teams tend to win more than road teams, and if they are heavy favorites, you'd expect them winning on the moneyline, which is what I parlayed. It was a terrible value with nine legs coming out to be +137. I was 8/9 before the Hawaii tip off. I should've hedged, but we were talking about a relatively minor investment on my end in the first place. I didn't, and of course, Hawaii lost despite being an overwhelming favorite. It was a dumb bet by me, and a reminder that anything can happen in March. Will "anything" happen in this game between Santa Clara and Saint Mary's in the West Coast Conference Semifinal?

Santa Clara had a good season at 25-7, but I've mentioned this before - the West Coast Conference is garbage. These teams are not very good. That doesn't mean they don't have talent, but in comparison to the other conferences, their strong record just isn't that impressive. They won't make the NCAA Tournament unless they win the spot outright. Their seven losses this season were against Saint Louis, New Mexico, Arizona State, Loyola Chicago, Gonzaga twice, and Saint Mary's. In fairness, they did beat the Gaels once this season as they won 62-54 in Santa Clara. Aside from that, I don't see too many impressive wins on the year for the Broncos. Offensively, they have a good interior presence that is averaging 25 points per game. Couple that with a guard, Christian Hammond, who is shooting 50% from the floor, 40% from deep, and 80% from the free throw line, and you have a relatively reliable inside and outside offense. 

March 8, 2026; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Santa Clara Broncos celebrate applying the team sticker on the tournament bracket after the game against the Pacific Tigers at Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Saint Mary's has had all sorts of time to prepare for this game, but they also couldn't just prepare for one specific opponent. I am sure they had a general idea of who they would play, but that doesn't always matter. The question that will come up most in this game is if this will be a matter of rust versus rest. The team hasn't played since they beat Gonzaga in the last game of their regular season on February 28th. That is more than a week off of basketball. That break can be good, but it isn't always beneficial. I'd expect Saint Mary's to start a bit slowly in the game. They only have four losses this season, and those were to Vanderbilt, Boise State, Santa Clara (as mentioned), and Gonzaga. Only against Vanderbilt did they get routed, losing that one by 25. Everything else was by eight or fewer points.

Now we are at the third game of the season between the two teams, with both of them having won one game. Santa Clara will certainly provide a test for Saint Mary's, but I'm not sure they have any significant advantage. The Gaels have Paulius Murauskas who will certainly give them the interior presence to deal with Santa Clara. On the outside, both of the guards for Saint Mary's are good shooters and they don't turn the ball over much. As I said, I expect Saint Mary's to start slow, so you might want to wait and see if you get points or even a better number on the moneyline, but I'll take them to cover the -3.5.

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