Michigan Should Make Light Work Of UConn

UConn vs. Michigan, 8:50 ET

We have reached the finish line, my friends. This has been a bit of a roller coaster this season, considering that I started the year really hot, then cooled off a bit. I heated up again before the end of the year, and then had a rough NCAA Tournament - at least for the bets I shared on Outkick. I suppose that's probably how it happens over most seasons, but this one felt more "all or nothing" than most to me. I did pick at least one of these teams to win the championship and I can be happy with that cashing. UConn is in search of its third National Championship in the past four years, while Michigan is looking to capture a title for the Big 10 for the first time in over 25 years. 

Of the two games on Saturday, UConn had the closer game. However, if you watched it, I don't think there was ever a point where it felt like the Huskies were not in control. We all know how the Huskies got here, but let's do a quick review of the other games. In the opening round, UConn took down Furman by 11. It was a comfortable win, but it didn't instill a ton of confidence that they would keep advancing. UCLA was up next, and they destroyed them, winning by 16. Against Michigan State, the Huskies did have a bit of a battle and only won by four points. They had a big lead and blew it, up by 19 at one point. They also shot significantly better from deep than the Spartans. We know what happened in the Duke game, but that was one where they were not the better team. Against Illinois, there were multiple times that the Illini made a run, but UConn stopped it every time. I don't think Illinois got within more than four points. Ultimately, they won by nine points and advanced to the championship again. They may have one of their better players, Solo Ball, is injured, but I expect him to go. 

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - APRIL 04: Jayden Ross #23 of the UConn Huskies gestures while playing against the Illinois Fighting Illini in the first half of the Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 04, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

101, 95, 90, 95, 91. Those are the points that Michigan has scored in each game during this Tournament run. They dominated Howard, as you'd have expected. They beat St. Louis by 23 in the next game. I suppose Alabama gave them the best fight as Michigan won that game by 13 points. Against Tennessee, they made the Volunteers look silly as they won the game by 33. The most recent game, against Arizona, was what I considered the National Championship. Those two teams looked like they were the best in the sport all season. Michigan won by 18 without even having their best player for the majority of the game. The roster is deep; they have a ton of dudes that can just hoop. Aday Mara was awesome in the interior, and before you think UConn will be able to deal with him, Arizona was good on the interior this season. Michigan also shot 44% from deep, but that was the second-worst they've shot from three in the tournament. I'd expect them to once again shoot over 40% from deep. 

I read something from vSIN that said the pace of play from these two teams is drastically different. UConn may want to control the pace, but if Michigan gets into their offense and starts hitting shots, they will absolutely turn this into a track meet, and that's not what UConn wants. In order for the Huskies to keep it close, they need to control the tempo. I still think Michigan will win the title, and I think they cover the -6.5, but I also like them getting over 76.5 for their team total. They've been held to under 77 points just nine times in 39 games. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024