Michigan Has Edge Inside And That Should Get Them The Cover

Michigan vs. Purdue, 6:30 ET

I had a brief conversation with Geoff Clark yesterday when we were talking about what games we were betting for the day. We talked about the Houston and Iowa State game. He said that he was taking Iowa State to win the game. I told him, in harsher words, that I was wimping out and playing the total for the game. I was wrong about it as the game squeaked over the total, but it probably should've hit by many more. Geoff correctly picked Iowa State to win the game, and his assessment of the score (he put 71-66) was remarkably close to the 70-67 final. Impressive work. I don't know if we are looking at the same game again today, but I'm locked in on this one between Michigan and Purdue.

Move over Arizona, there is a new #1 sheriff in town! Michigan has taken over the rank as the best team in the country after a tough week for the Wildcats. It really should come as no surprise that the Wolverines have moved to the top spot after their dominant 24-1 season and a 14-1 record in the Big Ten. This is the first time that Michigan has been ranked #1. They were ranked as high as second in the nation before they dropped a game to Wisconsin, the only blemish on their schedule. If they run the table through the NCAA Tournament, which is possible, that loss will come back to haunt them a bit on what could've been a perfect season. They do have some tough tests ahead of them, though. They have to face Purdue tonight, and then go to a neutral site to play Duke. They also have a road game against Illinois and host Michigan State to end the season. It would be mighty surprising to me to see them have just one loss on their record by the end of the year.

Purdue has put together a strong campaign in their own right. They are currently ranked seventh in the nation and they have done an admirable job of playing consistently strong basketball. They really don't take plays off, have a versatile defense, and can balance both inside and outside shooting well enough. The team is 21-4 and did have an ugly stretch near the end of last month where they lost at UCLA, then at home against Illinois, and then on the road against Indiana. You could make an argument they should've beaten all three teams, but certainly UCLA and Indiana. Road games are tough, but this is a strong Boilermakers team that knows how to play, and win, on the road. None of the losses in that stretch were embarrassing; they were all within two possessions. Their other loss, against Iowa State, was ugly. That game saw Purdue lose by 21 points. 

Purdue is willing to do the little things to give their team a win. The problem is that Michigan does a bit of everything and I can't see them being willing to give this game away. They do have a major one on the horizon, and that could be something causing them to overlook Purdue. However, they've been great in a lot of these games against ranked teams. I think that Michigan once again will dominate a ranked opponent. The spread here is telling me Purdue should keep this close, but I think Michigan will win by eight or more. They have a better interior prescense and their guards are reliable three-point shooters that will have good looks when Purdue tries to clog the paint. 

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