Mark My Words: Yankees Will Win Rubber Match Vs. Red Sox Sunday
If I weren't a New York Yankees fan, I'd sit this one out. NYY hosts the Boston Red Sox for their rubber match on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball at 7:10 p.m. ET in the Bronx.
I got waxed Saturday betting on MLB with an 0-2 showing. But, it's laundry night so I'll essentially be watching TV and researching the U.S. Open.
Also, I'm not going to not have money on the Yankees-Red Sox. That would be lame. Anyhow, Boston won the series opener 3-2 Friday then New York tied the series with a 3-1 victory Saturday.

Yankees 2B Gleyber Torres hits a home run vs. the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium Saturday. (New York Yankees/Getty Images)
The Yankees have struggled at the dish without Aaron Judge and are 2-3 since Judge went to the IL. They are bottom-10 over the past week in key hitting stats such as wRC+, wOBA, and WAR, per FanGraphs.
However, Boston is 2-6 in the last eight games including three losses vs. the Guardians and two against the Rays. Like the Yankees in the last seven days, the Red Sox are bottom-10 or -five in advanced hitting stats.
It's sneaky good starting pitching duel. Boston RHP Brayan Bello (3-4, 3.97 ERA) faces Yankees RHP Clarke Schmidt (2-6, 4.96 ERA). Neither have impressive basic stats but there is a lot to like when you dig deeper into both.

NYY righty Clarke Schmidt walks on the field before a game vs. the Chicago White Sox at Yankee Stadium. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Schmidt ranks 7th in FanGraphs' Stuff+ among MLB starters with a minimum of 60 innings. He puts crazy spin on his fastball and curveball and has above-average command, according to Statcast.
Bello has nasty stuff as well. In two career starts vs. NYY, Bello has allowed just one earned run and no home runs in 11 innings with a 10/3 K/BB rate. But, New York won both games.
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds

Betting odds for the Red Sox vs. the Yankees Sunday, June 11 as of 1 p.m. ET.
First of all, I wouldn't bet Boston to get myself out of a hostage situation. I just want to be clear about my bias. That said, the Yankees have enough hitting to out-slug the Red Sox even without Judge.
Bronx Bomber Giancarlo Stanton is a Red Sox killer. Stanton hit 5 HRs last year vs. Boston and 4 HRs in 2021. Yankees 2B Gleyber Torres has a hit in three straight games and hit a homer in New York's win Saturday.

New York OF Giancarlo Stanton at-bat vs. the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. (Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Plus, the Yankees have a much better bullpen. NYY's bullpen ranks ahead of Boston's in FIP ("fielding independent pitching"), WAR, and HR/9 rate, according to FanGraphs.
I wouldn't be shocked if Bello has a solid outing. We are getting a good number for New York because Schmidt's basic stats are misleading. But, the Yankees have a more consistent pitching staff.
The Red Sox are 20-26 vs. right-handed starters this season. Finally, Boston is 3-9 since the beginning of last season at Yankee Stadium with an average final score of 5.7-3.0 in New York's favor.
BET 1.25 units on New York (-125) at DraftKings

Betting odds for the NYY vs. Boston Red Sox Sunday from DraftKings.