Mariners Will Take Series Finale From Astros

Astros vs. Mariners, 9:40 ET

Sometimes you have to take the games that the books list as one of the closest on the entire slate. The implications for the playoffs are all over this one. The Mariners and Astros both have a chance to win the division (Mariners don't seem like they will be able to get it) but the bigger race is for the last Wild Card spot. There is a possibility that they both could make it, but everything probably needs to work out just right. Tonight is where we focus though.

The Astros have had a bit of a strange season. I'm not sure if it is due to the World Series hangover effect or if it has more to due with injury. Jose Altuve was out to start the season and at that time they didn't have Justin Verlander (not due to injury, he was with the Mets). Their superstars are still being superstars, so it isn't that there is a down year, but the Rangers got better and the Mariners finally started to turn it on. Tonight, they have Framber Valdez pitching for them. Valdez was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season - at the very least he was the most consistent pitcher. This season, the Astros lefty is in the top-20 of wins, ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP which is pretty impressive, even if the numbers don't exactly jump off the page. He threw a no hitter this year and came close to another one later in the same month. He struggled in his most recent start, but he had a very strong September prior to that. He's pitched against the Mariners twice this year and has allowed eight earned runs over 11 innings. Overall, the Mariners are hitting .240 against Valdez.

If the Mariners make the playoffs I will be amazed. Not only did they lose one of their best pitchers early in the year, they were actually considering selling at the trade deadline. They then got super hot and made up a ton of ground in the division. They were leading the division at one point after chasing down both the Astros and Rangers. Now they are on the outside looking in and absolutely have to win one or two games against the Astros in the series if they want any hope in the last games of the season. Seattle has been very dominant against the Astros this season though, so maybe they have a good chance to win this game. To try and take this game, the Astros send out Bryce Miller to the mound. He's been hit or miss this month. In two starts, he has covered 10.1 innings and allowed one earned run. In the other two starts, he has covered 9.1 innings and allowed 11 earned runs. He has been very good against the Astros though with two six innings starts where he allowed just two hits in each game and no earned runs.

I think the Mariners are going to take this game. It isn't likely that Miller will be able to hold the Astros scoreless again. But, you have to expect that Valdez will give up a couple of runs, so Miller just needs to limit the damage. I wouldn't be surprised about an over in this game at all, but I'm taking a shot on the Mariners to win this game and keep the playoff dream alive.

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