Mariners Will Take Game From Twins Ace

Mariners vs. Twins, 1:10 ET

If we are going to start picking teams that you think will be buyers and sellers at the deadline, I think both of these teams would be harder to determine exactly what they will do. I think they would both be likely to be buyers though. The way that both of these teams are playing and the way they are pitching gives them hope even if their offenses aren’t great. The deadline may be quite a bit of time away from here, but we can still start looking to predict what they will do while we predict what happens today between the Mariners and Twins. 

The Mariners need offense if they want to keep this team above water and fighting for the division at the end of the season. As a team, they are only hitting .222 for the year, and that simply isn’t enough to get the job done. They are in the bottom third in runs scored for the year, and that includes putting up 10 runs in the game against these Twins a couple of days ago. The pitching staff is keeping them afloat for now, but if they slip up a bit, the Mariners could find themselves in a major slump. Right now, the club has an ERA of barely above three runs per game, and their WHIP is hovering around one, which is outstanding for an entire team. Opponents are only hitting around .200 against them as well. Today, they have arguably their best pitcher on the team, Logan Gilbert, throwing for them. Gilbert is off to a great start with a 1.69 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP. On the season, he has six quality starts in seven outings, including five straight. He’s only had one bad start this season (he allowed four earned runs on five hits, including three homers, over 5.2 innings), but it did come on the road. Twins hitters are batting .235 against him over 51 at-bats. 

Minnesota Twins RHP Pablo Lopez pitches during Game 2 of the ALDS vs. the Astros at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. (Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The Twins are a team that I’ve given a lot of crap to over the years. I have finally started to accept that maybe they aren’t great, but they could be good enough. There isn’t a ton of star power on the roster, but they have guys that find ways to get the job done. When I was watching one of their games, they had a stat about their record with and without Byron Buxton. It is alarming how much better they are with Buxton on the field than they are without him. Buxton isn’t leading the team in any category, but his impact is interesting to mention. Another guy that the Twins rely on quite a bit is today’s starter, Pablo Lopez. For some reason, Lopez was expected to compete for the Cy Young this season. I never really saw that being a realistic expectation for him, but he could be the leader of the staff. For the season, he has a 4.30 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. His WHIP would indicate to me that his ERA is a bit inflated. Part of that is because he has allowed six homers in his 37.2 innings. He has allowed three or more runs in four of his seven starts this year. Mariners hitters aren’t great against him, going just 8-for-36 against him.

This should be a relatively competitive game, but I do think the Mariners probably take it. I think the safer play here is to take the under. We have a day game after their evening game last night, and we have two strong pitchers. Lopez isn’t pitching as well as Gilbert, but the Mariners aren’t that strong offensively right now. I’d love to take the under but at 6.5 the line is fair. I’ll instead take the Mariners to win this one behind Gilbert through five.   

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024