Mariners And Padres Could Keep Hot Bats Going

Mariners vs. Padres, 8:40 ET

We head to the West Coast for some baseball action today. I know that most media have an East Coast bias, but, of course, there are still big markets on the West Coast. I don’t know that I have a preference for one or the other when it comes to betting. I mainly just look for whatever I think can work for us to line our pockets. No matter which teams or locations you prefer, I think we can all agree that winning money is the priority, and we can do that here as the Mariners take on the Padres.

The Mariners are still not quite playing the baseball you’d like them to. I saw someone recently say that 15 games was no longer a small sample size. However, I would disagree with that. I understand it is roughly 10% of the season, but there just feels like so much more to turn things around, so relying on trends for hitters or saying this is what a team will be is probably the wrong approach. As of now, the team is not hitting, though. Collectively, they are not distant from .200. However, a recent trip home did seem to make a major difference for them as they won all four games against the Astros, and they scored 29 runs in the four-game set. Tonight, they have a guy who needs to get going for them, Luis Castillo. Castillo is throwing to the tune of a 6.92 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in his three starts. The most concerning thing is that in the past two games, he has allowed 16 hits over 7 innings. The good news for him is that the Padres are hitting .200 against him over 65 at-bats. Manny Machado has the most experience and is just 4-for-17.

Luis Castillo has a good chance to dominate hitters during the All-Star Game. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

The Padres are doing better record-wise, but that is due to a nice stretch where they beat the Rockies in four straight games. Their offense, much like the Mariners', benefited significantly from this series. In the four games against Colorado, they put up 28 runs, but the Rockies are likely going to lose over 100 games. Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting, but they need guys like Machado and Jake Cronenworth to get going if they want to have any shot at giving the Dodgers a run for the division. Speaking of the Dodgers, the Padres send out a former Dodgers starter, Walker Buehler, to the mound. He is 0-1 for the season with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Buehler was my pick a few years ago to be Cy Young but injuries derailed his career a bit. He still has solid stuff when he is at his best. He was at his best against the Rockies in his last outing, going six scoreless innings and allowing just three hits. Mariners hitters have done well against Buehler in the past, going 13-for-40 against him, with Cal Raleigh feasting to the tune of five hits in six tries.

There are a number of ways to play this game – Raliegh 2+ hits, runs, RBIs; the Mariners to win on the moneyline; the over for the game; Machado under 0.5 hits; or the team total for the Mariners. Usually, I like to stay away from these because I feel like I will pick the wrong one when I feel like there are a bunch of good options. This time I do feel more confident in taking the over for the game, though. With Buehler’s history and Castillo’s current form, I think this is the best look. Neither has been great lately, and I feel like the right angle here is to play the over. Both teams might also finally be finding their hitting form. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024