Lugo, Royals Will Get Revenge On Guardians

Guardians vs. Royals, 2:10 ET

We've reached the end of June folks, and we are going to start inching closer to the All-Star Game. There is a lot on the horizon for July actually as we have the best holiday of the year - the Fourth of July, the MLB All-Star Game, the Olympics at the end of the month, NBA Summer League, and of course even more football news as we grow closer to that season. This should be an interesting period, but before we get to July, let's finish off June with a win. For that, I'm turning to a game between two divisional foes, the Guardians and the Royals.

The Guardians shouldn't be this good. They are more than 10 games over .500 at this point and they look like they could end up running away with this division. The team was expected to have a bit of a down year. Unfortunately for the rest of the AL Central (except the White Sox who never even tried to take this year seriously) the Guardians stormed out to a hot start and really haven't looked back. Now, are they going to make any noise in the playoffs? I really doubt that, but it remains to be seen. What the team should be encouraged by is the offensive production. Sure, the team is led by Jose Ramirez doing what he typically does, but there are other solid contributions from the club that have supported what has been a one-man show in year's past. Their pitching staff is still good, but I wouldn't call it a great rotation. They find ways to get the job done. Today's starter, Logan Allen, has been a bit of a disappointment after putting together a very good season last year. This month, he has allowed 12 earned runs on just 20 innings of work, and most of that came against the Orioles in his last start as he allowed six earned in just three innings. The Guardians did win the game though, so not a big deal in the big picture. This was the fourth time in 16 starts this year that he has allowed at least four earned runs on the year. He hasn't faced Kansas City this year, but they have knocked him around in the past, going 17-for-42 against him with three homers.

BALTIMORE, MD - JUNE 26: Brayan Rocchio #4 of the Cleveland Guardians tags out Jorge Mateo #3 of the Baltimore Orioles on steal attempt at second base in the fifth inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 26, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

This is a big series for the Royals. Their good start is beginning to slip away and they could be reminiscent of last year's Pirates team or even the Diamondbacks if they are very lucky. The Pirates were good and leading the NL Central last season before fading off around the mid-way point of the year. The Diamondbacks were leading the division 81 games into the season last year and ultimately ended up with a Wild Card berth on their way to a World Series appearance. The Royals almost certainly will take that result. The team is hitting slightly worse than before, but still is doing well in the category overall. They aren't scoring as many runs though, and that is a true concern. Especially considering the pitching staff has struggled to maintain their dominance they established earlier in the year. Seth Lugo still looks good, but even he isn't quite as sharp as he was. He has a 10-2 record, tied for first in the league, and has a 2.29 ERA which is still good for fourth. However, the start of this month was very ugly as he allowed nine earned runs in 13 innings. Considering that accounts for a fourth of the runs he has allowed this year, it does stand out. He's rebounded nicely in his last three starts, going 18.2 innings and allowing just four earned runs. Lugo faced the Guardians at the start of June and was hammered for five earned runs and two homers over six innings. 

This is a game the Royals almost have to win. I recognize that it is only the end of June, but you can't slip too far down the standings. In a game like today's I think they have all the advantages in the world and should find a way to win. However, I'm going to play it a bit safer and just take the first five inning run line. Allen is capable of a good outing, but his history suggests that he will be hit and hit hard. I think the Royals probably win this game by two or more runs, but I'm going to only do the first five innings to be a bit more cautious and isolate it to the starters. 

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