Lugo Will Once Again Dominate White Sox

White Sox vs. Royals, 7:40 ET

As always we have a shorter slate on this Thursday. In some ways I prefer these days because it gives me more of an opportunity to review the games. I usually look at every game and each matchup anyway, but this is an opportunity for me to spent more time with each game and dive into them. For example there are six games tonight compared to 15 games that were scheduled yesterday. I’ve chosen one that I really like for tonight as we have the White Sox taking on the Royals in Kansas City.

The White Sox are expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball, but they look at least decent through the first couple of weeks. I’m not saying they are going to compete for a Wild Card spot, or even win 81 or more games. This team will struggle in most series, but I do think they have a good chance to not lose 100 games this year. I really like their new addition, Munetaka Murakami. He has been a solid power hitter, but he hasn’t shown much luck in hitting for average yet. On the mound, they will have Anthony Kay pitching for them tonight. Kay was out of baseball the last two years, but his return hasn’t looked terrible. He has thrown a total of 9 innings and allowed four earned runs on six hits. I think his numbers are probably what you should expect from him – a 4.00 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He hasn’t had any real experience against Royals hitters to speak of. 

Apr 4, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago White Sox relief pitcher Anthony Kay (18) delivers a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Royals are one of the teams that I expect to be solid this year. I don’t expect them to make a deep postseason run, but I do have them selected to win the AL Central. It has not been the most impressive start to the campaign, but they’ve been fine overall. Bobby Witt Jr. continues to be regarded as the next MVP, but he has been lacking a lot of power to this point in the year. Again, I understand it is early, but he didn’t have an extra-base hit through 10 games and only scored one run for the club. The good news is that Seth Lugo, the Royals starter, has looked phenomenal through his first two starts. He’s turned in 11.1 innings, allowed nine hits and two earned runs. He has 10 strikeouts and just two walks. Lugo has been a strong contributor for a few years now, and he is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP for the year. White Sox hitters are hitting just .182 against him over 33 at-bats.

The White Sox are not a good hitting club, and now they have to face Lugo. There are two angles I like in this game. The first is the Royals to win on the run line. They should be able to knock Kay around a bit, or at least score a few off of him. I also think the White Sox team total under is a good look. Lugo has been very good against them. If you prefer the prop on his under earned runs allowed, that's fine. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs to the White Sox in a game in the past two years. 

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