Lugo, McKenzie Will Be Sharp In AL Central Battle

Royals vs. Guardians, 6:40 ET

The AL Central was kind of a whipping boy for me over the past few years. I made it no secret that I thought it was the worst division in all of baseball. It was one of the few divisions that I thought "The only chance they have to have a playoff representative is to win the division." This season is a bit different because this year, four teams are actually playing good baseball within the division. Now we have two of them facing off today as the Royals head to Cleveland to take on the Guardians. 

The Royals are 11 games over .500 despite having a slightly down record on the road. They are second in the division and are looking to make up ground on their divisional foes in this game. This is the first series that the two have played this season, but there will be plenty of matchups as they square off 13 times today between today and September 4th. There have been a lot of surprises in baseball this season, but the Royals have to be my biggest. With a .252 batting average and almost 300 runs scored for the season, their offense sits near the top in all of baseball. This isn't a really big veteran club, and the team didn't go out and sign a bunch of established players in the offseason. To me, it seems like the squad is just finally clicking and making things happen. Sure, Salvador Perez is still a big bat that is doing well, but the rest of the team has come together to support his efforts. As great as the offense has been, the pitching has been great, and no one has been better than today's starter, Seth Lugo. Lugo is looking to become the first pitcher in the league to win 10 games this season. Wins and losses are often attributed to the starter more than justifiable, but Lugo is sporting a 1.72 ERA (2nd in the league) and a 1.01 WHIP (14th). He has been great everywhere, but he's been exceptional on the road with a 6-0 record in six starts and a 0.86 ERA. Guardians hitters are just 2-for-4 against Lugo in their careers. 

CLEVELAND, OH - OCTOBER 15:   Triston McKenzie #24 of the Cleveland Guardians pitches in the first inning during the game between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on Saturday, October 15, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

While the Royals may be the biggest surprise in baseball, I wouldn't put the Guardians too far behind them. This season has been nothing short of spectacular for Cleveland. Right now the Guardians are almost 20 games over .500 and it seems like everything is going correctly for them. The team is only hitting .238 for the season, but they have scored more runs than the Royals. Their On-Base Percentage is higher, but the Slugging Percentage is lower. That's what I mean by things could be going right for them. The pitching staff has been even better than the Royals though with a 3.47 team ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Triston McKenzie is one of their better pitchers, and he's got the tough task of battling against Lugo today. McKenzie has a 3.77 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. His May was nice as he tossed 35 innings over six starts and allowed just 12 earned runs. His worst two starts were his two most recent though. He has been better at home than he has been on the road, but his biggest issue is home runs, and the majority of them have come in Cleveland. He has been great against Royals hitters in his career with a .128 batting average against him. 

As you'd expect with two sharp pitchers on the hill, I'm looking toward the under. When two guys are throwing the ball well, you have to assume that eventually they will have a stinker, but I don't really see it happening here. I do think the Royals will be the team to beat through five innings though so I'll back the under and Royals to win the first five innings. 

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