Lugo Can Keep Red Sox Down For Half Of the Game

Royals vs. Red Sox, 4:10 ET

When I wrote about Opening Day, I talked a lot about hope. The idea that hope is something every team has at the beginning of the season. Everyone has an equal record and an equal outlook on the season. I mentioned that most teams were probably realistic about what their season would be before it began, but there was hope that everyone could perform better than expectations. For both of the teams that are in this afternoon's game, the Royals and the Red Sox, hope may have carried them to winning records as both were expected to be losing teams this season. 

Kansas City came into this season with expectations that they were still under development, and honestly, I didn't expect them to be even close to good. Outside of Salvador Perez, I really wasn't able to name too many Royals on the roster. It was very similar to the team that they had last year. One player that stepped up is Bobby Witt Jr., who is hitting .325 for the season with a .371 On-Base Percentage, and a .560 Slugging Percentage. He is leading the team in average and RBIs, and is one back of Perez for the home run lead. It isn't just the offense that has stepped up this season, the pitching staff has overperformed expectations. The entire staff has a 3.79 ERA, but no one has been better than today's starter, Seth Lugo. Lugo is a guy who has made quite a bit of money for us this season, and hopefully we can find a way to make more today. For half of the year, Lugo has to be in strong consideration for the Cy Young award. He currently is 11-3, which is the second most wins. He has a 2.21 ERA and that is the best number in the league. His strikeout total is just 110, and while it isn't a top-10 number, it is still tied for 23rd in the league. The final number to share is 1.04, which is his WHIP, 15th best in the league. He has had a total of three games this season where he has allowed four or more earned runs. Every other game has been two or fewer earned runs allowed. He is on a streak of five consecutive quality starts as well. He might have an advantage in this game as only two Red Sox hitters have seen him, and they are a combined 0-for-7. 

Jun 26, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Kutter Crawford (50) pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Boston is arguably more surprising to me than the Royals. The Red Sox are positioning themselves to make a run for the postseason and this year was one that I expected them to fall into last place of the division. So, to all of the Boston faithful, I'm sorry that I doubted your team. Offensively, I think the Red Sox have been surprisingly good with a .253 batting average and 109 homers. I'm a bit surprised that they've been this good as they didn't really make any offseason addition. The pitching staff has been excellent this season, and that arguably is the bigger key and surprise. The staff has a 3.65 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP which put them close to the top of the league in both numbers. Imagine if they had Chris Sale on the squad still - this year's version of Sale at least. Today they have Kutter Crawford going for them. Crawford has been very strong this season despite a somewhat ugly 5-7 record. Crawford has a 3.24 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, both are top-20 in the Majors. This is the best Crawford has ever pitched, but I think this is probably maintainable for the right-hander. He is on a streak of five straight quality starts. He has only made 18 starts, so he is doing a little better than 50%. The Royals have seen him only 26 times, but have had pretty good success against him, getting seven hits with four of them going for extra bases. 

Both of these teams are playing very good baseball and this could be a playoff preview. The offenses have been surprisingly good, but these pitchers have been great. I think the Royals will win this game through five innings though and it is mostly because Lugo is on the mound. Lugo has done a phenomenal job this season, but the biggest thing is he should be able to get through three innings without any damage as the Red Sox feel him out. Crawford has been good, but he has given up runs. 

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