Week 1 College Football Betting Preview: Why Clemson Has An Edge Over LSU

The primetime main event in Week 1 of college football 2025-26 is the #9 LSU Tigers at #6 Clemson Tigers in Memorial Stadium, aka Death Valley (yes, I know LSU's home field is also called "Death Valley"), with a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff. These are two programs with legitimate College Football Playoff hopes, Heisman-caliber quarterbacks, and proven head coaches. 

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But the way they’ve built their rosters couldn’t be more different. LSU reloaded through the transfer portal, while Clemson leaned on continuity. That contrast sets the tone for one of the biggest handicapping angles in this matchup: Stability vs. roster turnover will impact this massive non-conference showdown under the lights in Death Valley.

Roster Construction: Continuity vs. Transfers

Clemson has the most returning production from last year’s team in college football, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly. LSU accrued the most talent via the transfer portal this offseason, according to 247sports.com. To each their own, but I prefer continuity to roster-building through the transfer portal. Especially considering Clemson has as much talent as the best SEC teams, including LSU. 

Quarterback ‘Tale of the Tape’ 

I'll take Clemson QB Cade Klubnik over LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier. They are tied as the second-betting favorite (+900) to win the 2025 Heisman at DraftKings. Yet, Klubnik had a better QB Rating (148.2-142.7), seven more passing touchdowns (36-29), and half of the interceptions (12-6) last season. Plus, Clemson’s three starting receivers have a higher Pro Football Focus grade than LSU’s. 

Clemson Tigers QB Cade Klubnik throws the ball vs. the Texas Longhorns in the first round of the 2024-25 College Football Playoffs. (Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images)

Trench Battle

LSU lost four starting offensive linemen from last year’s team to the NFL, while Clemson’s offensive line has the ninth-most starts of any unit in the country, per college football analyst Phil Steele. Clemson has two ESPN first-team preseason All-Americans on its defensive line: DT Peter Woods and edge rusher T.J. Parker, who led the team with 11.0 sacks last season. 

Clemson's defensive front could feast on LSU's inexperienced offensive line, and Nussmeier led the SEC in interceptions last season. Furthermore, Clemson's continuity and talent (one 5-star recruit and four 4-star recruits) on the offensive line will help it convert in short-yardage situations and give Klubnik time in the pocket. 

Historical Comp

This game gives me vibes of LSU-Florida State in Week 1 of 2023. LSU was fifth in the 2023 transfer portal rankings and had a loaded offense, featuring Heisman-winning QB Jayden Daniels and two first-round wideouts, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers. However, FSU was among the top college football teams with returning production in 2023 and smashed LSU 45-21 in Week 1. 

Since hiring head coach Brian Kelly in 2022, LSU is 4-8 against the spread (ATS) vs. ranked teams with a -8.3 scoring margin, and 1-2 ATS as a road underdog with a -4.0 spread differential. Finally, LSU has lost three straight Week 1 games vs. non-conference opponents over that span: Florida State twice (24-23 in 2022 and 2023), and USC last season, 27-20. 

Best Bet: Clemson -3.5 (-112) at DraftKings, up to -4.5

• Clemson 34, LSU 24

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my college football 2025-26 bets here.