Louisville Will Trash Toledo

Toledo vs. Louisville, 2:00 ET

It has been a really strong Bowl Season to this point, with the exception of not doing great in the more popular games that make up the College Football Playoffs. Ultimately, all plays have been the same value for me so it has been profitable. However, of course, the ones with more eyes watching haven't exactly gone according to plan. That really doesn't matter as the name of the game is profit and that's what we've gotten. Let's get more profit as we put a play on the Bush's Boca Raton Bowl between Toledo and Louisville. 

Toledo comes into the game with a solid 8-4 record, but they weren't champions of the MAC with that record. They were good, but ultimately, Western Michigan and Ohio both finished higher in the standings than Toledo did. They have been on a heater over their last four games, with their defense looking outstanding and their offense being equally dominant. In the past four games, they have held all opponents to under 10 points, and three of them to just three points. Four weeks, one touchdown, that's good by any standard or for any team in college football. Their losses this season were a bit questionable, but all four were on the road where most teams struggle. They dropped the opener against Kentucky, then lost again to Western Michigan a few weeks later. After those two losses alternated wins and losses, dropping games to Bowling Green and Washington State. The biggest issue for Toledo being competitive here is that they have lost a lot of key pieces to the transfer portal. They lost their head coach to UConn, and their defensive coordinator to Syracuse. Their quarterback, Tucker Gleason was injured in the last game and may not play in this one.

Louisville has an identical record to Toledo, but they have a lot fewer issues in terms of missing players. There are a number of injuries for the game, but I'm not really worried about those as much because the players have missed a few games, so it isn't like Louisville is unfamiliar with missing them. This was a really strong season for the Cardinals until later in the year. They started 4-0 with nice wins over some decent opponents. Then they lost to Virginia in overtime 30-27. The next week, they went on the road and beat Miami, forcing Carson Beck to throw four interceptions. For whatever reason, after running their record to 7-1, the team kind of pooped the bed. They dropped three straight to Cal, Clemson, and SMU. None of those three are all that great of teams, and while two of the three were very close games, it was still a bit unexplainable. They did end their season with a very convincing, and good win, over Kentucky, beating them 41-0.

This spread is way too low to me. I think Louisville should be favored by two touchdowns in this game. They have the better team, their coaching staff, and have beaten some of the common opponents with ease. That doesn't even mention the opt-outs and transfers that are going to without a doubt impact Toledo. Keep in mind this Cardinals team was ranked at one point. This should be an easy win for Louisville. 

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