LA Rams At Seattle Seahawks NFC Title Game: 5 Best Spread And Prop Bets

Unlike the AFC title game, the two most obvious teams are vying for the 2026 NFC Championship when the Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. Seattle was the betting favorite to win Super Bowl 60, but LAR were the highest power-rated team in the NFL betting market for most of the season. 

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This is a rematch of perhaps the best game this season. Or, at least my favorite. The Seahawks avenged a 21-19 loss in Week 11 by beating the Rams 38-37 in overtime in a Week 16 instant classic. Seattle hammered the San Francisco 49ers 41-6 last round, while LAR eked past the Carolina Panthers 34-31 and the Chicago Bears 20-17 in the first two rounds of the playoffs. 

With the stakes set, the betting card narrows to where this matchup is most likely to swing: the spread, the early script, and a handful of player-specific edges. Here’s how I’m attacking Rams-Seahawks with one game prop and three player props.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks NFC Championship Betting Card 

• Los Angeles Rams +2.5 (-110), down to a pick 'em, vs. Seattle Seahawks via DraftKings, risking 1.1 units (u).
• Seahawks WR Rashid Shaheed UNDER 6.5 rushing yards (-117) via DraftKings, risking 0.29u.
• Rams WR Davante Adams OVER 20.5 yards longest reception (-117) via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 0.29u.
• UNDER 9.5 first-quarter total (-105) via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 0.26u.
• Rams EDGE Byron Young OVER 0.25 sacks (+152) via DraftKings, risking 0.25u.

Los Angeles +2.5 

If both teams play their best, the Rams should win. They’re better across most position groups, with the only real "paper" edge for Seattle showing up in the secondary, and even then, LAR’s secondary is still awesome.

Rams QB Matt Stafford is the difference-maker here. He’s a first-team All-Pro and was the betting favorite to win the 2025 NFL MVP entering the playoffs, and that matters in a matchup that’s likely decided by a handful of high-leverage throws.

Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford throws a pass vs. the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field in NFL Week 16. (Photo credit: Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)

Seattle also took a real hit in the backfield when RB Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL last week and is done for the postseason. Both teams have two quality backs on the roster, but losing one of yours in January is brutal.

The Rams Have An Edge In Predictive Metrics 

The line of scrimmage is where this matchup tilts, and the numbers support it. According to ESPN, the Rams have better win rates in three of four line-of-scrimmage situations, and the only category where Seattle has an edge is pass-rush win rate, where the teams are basically neck-and-neck.

That’s important because early-down efficiency and trench play are the two most predictive things in football. Early downs are when the whole playbook is open. If you’re winning early downs and controlling the point of attack, you can dictate pace, formation, and play-call tendencies.

And the Rams have been doing exactly that. Heading into the final week of the season (before Week 18, when some teams rested their starters), the Rams led the NFL in early-down success rate (EDSR) and the Seahawks were second. But the gap was wild: LAR’s EDSR was more than double Seattle’s (11.6% to 5.5%).

Interior Pressure Is The Seahawks’ Nightmare Scenario

All three of Seattle’s interior offensive linemen are below-average, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Meanwhile, the Rams have monsters inside, such as defensive linemen Poona Ford and Kobie Turner, who are sixth and fourth, respectively, among 131 interior defensive linemen graded by PFF. 

Every quarterback struggles when pressure comes up the middle. Interior pressure breaks everything. It kills timing, destroys footwork, and forces the kind of panic throws that flip games. If LAR's interior is consistently living in Seattle’s backfield, that’s a deal-breaker.

The Los Angeles Rams face the Seattle Seahawks Sunday in the 2026 NFC Championship. (Photo credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images)

Seahawks QB Sam Darnold led the NFL with 25 turnovers this season: 14 interceptions and a league-high 11 fumbles. His turnover issues surfaced vs. the Rams this season. Darnold threw four interceptions against LAR in Week 11 and two more in Week 16. 

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Player Props I Like

Seahawks WR Rashid Shaheed UNDER 6.5 rushing yards

This number might seem low because Shaheed averages 9.1 yards per rush since joining the Seahawks in Week 10. Also, Shaheed had a 31-yard carry against the Rams in Week 16 and two carries for 27 yards vs. the Niners in the divisional round. He had one rushing attempt for two yards against LAR in Week 11, too. 

People might think he could get some carries Sunday because of the Charbonnet injury. Nevertheless, since he ran the ball last week and twice vs. the Rams in the regular season, LAR’s defense might be prepared for a Shaheed handoff. 

I mean, the Rams held him to a two-yard gain earlier this season. If he gets blown up in the backfield, he's probably not getting another carry. Shaheed has only carried the ball 2+ times in three games this season, so he most likely won't have a lot of rushing attempts. 

Shaheed's rushing yards prop is the most popular player prop for this game at BetMGM sportsbook, per John Ewing. I actually gave it out on the OutKick Bets Podcast at Under 2.5 rushing yards, and it has steamed up since. Fading popular player props might be a betting angle in the playoffs when there is more liquidity in those markets. 

Rams WR Davante Adams OVER 20.5 yards 

Adam has eclipsed this number in 12 of his 16 regular-season and playoff games this season. Everyone thinks of him as just a red-zone threat, which is true, but he’s still elite at catching contested passes, and Stafford is known for tight-window throws. Also, Puka Nacua’s greatness allows Adams to get easier matchups.

UNDER 9.5 first-quarter total

It’s a conference championship, and like all title bouts, these two teams could spend the first quarter settling into the fight. There were 10 and 17 points scored in the first quarter of the first two Rams-Seahawks meetings this season. Seattle scored 17 first-quarter points vs. the Niners last week, including an opening kickoff return touchdown. 

However, those are data points to fade, and it's typically wise to fade recent or obvious results. The Seahawks have the third-lowest pass rate over expectation in the league, per Nfelo. They have the lowest go-for-it rate on fourth down, and I doubt they’ll go for it on 4th-and-short in the first quarter.

Also, Stafford attempted 42 passes in a bad-weather game against the Chicago Bears in the divisional round and lit up the Seahawks for 457 passing yards in their second meeting. That said, maybe Rams head coach Sean McVay tries to switch it up and go with a run-heavy approach to start the game. 

Rams EDGE Byron Young OVER 0.25 sacks 

Young is LAR’s highest graded pass-rusher, and Pro Football Focus ranks him ninth out of 120 qualified EDGEs. He led the team in sacks (12.0), quarterback hits (29), and pressures (40). Granted, Young didn’t have a sack in either Rams-Seahawks game this season, but he is one of the more underrated pass rushers in the league, and Seattle won't shut him out three times. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.