Look For A Slow Start As College Football Playoffs Resume

Oregon vs. Texas Tech, 12:00 ET

Happy New Year! I hope 2026 is starting off on the right foot - no hangover, no stress, and most of all, in positive health. While we won't ever get the perfect world, I hope small moments of joy fill up your calendar and make this a year that turns into one big, unforgettable year. The College Football gods have already blessed us and are making 2026 start at the right spot - with the College Football Playoffs. We have a great game to kick off the action today as Oregon takes on Texas Tech.

Oregon is the lone lower seed of the slate today that is favored. This isn't a drastic difference in seeding as Oregon came in as the #5 team and Texas Tech is the #4 team. For the year, Oregon went 12-1, but did not play in the Big 10 Championship as both Indiana and Ohio State were undefeated. Does Oregon deserve to be favored based on who they've played? They played four ranked opponents this season and went 3-1, with the lone loss being against Indiana. That game was at home, where Oregon has been particularly great, and they lost 30-20, so it wasn't even a one-score game. They beat Penn State at Penn State, but that win isn't nearly as impressive now, considering how bad the Nittany Lions were this year. It also took Oregon double overtime to get the job done. They barely escaped Iowa with a win as the Hawkeyes played them closely before the Ducks left with an 18-16 victory. The only other game they had against a ranked team was USC, and they did demolish them, 42-27. They have played one Playoff game already, against James Madison, a forgone conclusion that they would win with ease. They won 51-34. I was wrong about that game, as I expected the Ducks' defense to actually play, but they either didn't try or there is a major reason to be concerned about them. 

EUGENE, OREGON - NOVEMBER 14: Head coach Dan Lanning of the Oregon Ducks leads his team onto the field prior to the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Autzen Stadium on November 14, 2025 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Soobum Im/Getty Images)

Texas Tech is one of my picks to win the National Championship. That doesn't mean that I'll pick them blindly moving forward. The point of futures is to try and provide yourself with opportunities to make money as the tournament, season, or whatever, goes on. Either way, the main point is that I like the Red Raiders and think they are a complete team. If we are going to evaluate Oregon's schedule, we probably should do the same for Texas Tech. Their lone loss came on the road against Arizona State, not a great team. They lost that game 26-22. They only played two ranked teams, Utah, and BYU twice. They won those three games, holding them to a combined 24 points in the three games. Their defense was the best part of the team, holding every team to 20 or fewer points in wins, and 26 points was the season high they allowed. They also have held opponents to 9 or fewer points in the past four contests, and five of the last six games. Oregon certainly has a better offense than the other teams they've faced, but I'm not ready to commit to saying that Texas Tech can't stop them. 

This is a game that I expect there to be some feeling out. I mentioned this previously in the article about College Football Futures, but Texas Tech didn't have to prepare for both James Madison and Oregon. They knew they were playing the Ducks so they've had weeks to study the tape. However, the offense should be a bit rusty in trying to get back up to gamespeed. I think this game goes under the 51.5 total, but I'm predicting the first half goes under. I'll take the 1st half under 24.5, but if you're more comfortable with the full game, that's a fair look as well in my opinion.

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