Look For Explosive Offenses To Do Their Thing

Miami vs. Texas A&M, 12:00 ET

We’ve reached easily the best day of the early Bowl Season. We have three games today, and all of them are matchups between College Football Playoff teams. I know there was (and probably always will be) drama surrounding the teams chosen for the tournament, but honestly, if we get great football, do you really care? I am not an alumni and have no friends or family on any of the teams in the Playoffs, so I have no rooting interest in who makes it and who does not. I just want the best teams in – which does lead way to arguments for keeping teams like James Madison and Tulane out of it, but that’s a different story. For now, let’s just focus on the teams in the Playoffs, Miami and Texas A&M.

Miami was one of the teams that a lot of people questioned about getting into the College Football Playoffs. They went 10-2, so it wasn’t like they were bums this season. Simply put, the team was dominant at times, and at others you could make a justifiable case for the team to completely miss the Playoffs altogether. Their two losses this year came at the hands of Louisville and SMU. Before the season started, if you had guessed that those would be the two losses on their schedule, I think you could’ve made a ridiculous sum of money. They dropped the game to Louisville 24-21 in Miami and that was a brutal loss. Their quarterback, Carson Beck, threw four interceptions in that game, including one that happened on their final drive to prevent any possibility of a tie or win. The loss at SMU was a bit of a head-scratcher. SMU wasn’t terrible this season, finishing at 8-4, and we know that losing on the road is a bit more common, but the level of talent and expectations between these two teams are vastly different. Miami did beat Notre Dame, part of the reason they are in and the Irish are not, South Florida, Florida State (though they are bad and were ranked for no good reason at that point), and Pittsburgh for ranked opponents on their schedule. 

TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 4: Carson Beck #11 of the Miami Hurricanes reads the defense as he hands the ball off to Mark Fletcher Jr. #4 of the Miami Hurricanes the game against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium on October 4, 2025 in Tallahassee, Florida.  (Photo by Jason Clark/Getty Images)

Texas A&M really never had a question about whether they would make it into the Playoffs. Their lone loss this season came in the final week of their season as they lost the game at Texas. It somewhat bolstered the case for the Longhorns to enter the year, but the reality is that they had three losses and it was unlikely that Texas would make it. The Aggies didn’t have most difficult schedule in the world, beating the likes of Notre Dame, LSU, and Missouri as their only ranked opponents. What has been most consistent about the Texas A&M team has been their offense. They have put up 30+ points in 10 of their 12 games. They have put up 40+ points in six of their 12 games. The only two times they didn’t score that much were against Auburn, when they won 16-10, and the loss to Texas where they put up just 17 points. Marcel Reed, their quarterback, does make some bad decisions at times, winding up with 10 interceptions for the year. 

This game is likely to come down to whoever wins the turnover battle. Personally, I don’t see either of these teams winning more than one game in the College Football Playoffs, but I do think both are at least capable of giving a good fight. For this particular game, I lean toward Texas A&M winning, and Miami covering the +3.5 spread. I think the right play here is to take the over. We’ve seen what Texas A&M is capable of, and their defense does allow points. Miami is built a similar way. Sure, playoff games typically go under, but both teams might want a shootout in this one. Give me the over 49.5.

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