As Long As They Are Focused, Bills Should Dominate

Bills vs. Texans, 8:15 ET

Thursday Night Football is back to kick off our Week 12 action, and it probably is a good point to stop and look at the division leaders. I'm going to put myself on blast right now, which I hope is something you all appreciate about my transparency. I basically had two different teams from last year making the playoffs. I even mentioned on the Outkick Bets podcast that I knew I would be wrong, I just don't see the advancements of certain teams well enough I guess. The current division leaders: The Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Broncos, Eagles, Bears, Buccaneers, and Rams. I would've been correct on maybe half of them. I didn't see the Colts and Patriots leading at this point. I actually had the Texans and Bills leading their respective divisions, and both are looking for playoff paths as they square off on Thursday Night Football.

The Bills still have a legitimate shot at the division. The Patriots are 9-2 for the season, but they still have to face Buffalo one more time. The Bills are 7-3, but the losses this season are a bit more questionable than you probably would imagine. It started with a home loss to the Patriots, something that just doesn't happen often for Buffalo. Then they lost the very next week with a bad performance against Atlanta. This was a game that I thought the Bills would rebound in, but that wasn't the case. They came out flat and went into their bye week with a two-game losing streak. They came out and beat the Panthers with ease, the beat the Chiefs, and then lost to the Miami Dolphins, who at the time had just two wins for the season. Last week, they played the Buccaneers and Josh Allen looked like an MVP candidate again. Allen ran for three touchdowns and also threw for three. The problem that I have with Allen this season is that he seems to be regressing a bit. There were a lot of times that he made dumb decisions and forced throws. He has seven interceptions this season, with all of them coming in the past seven games. He only threw six interceptions all of last season. The Texans defense is among the best in the league, so he will need to be careful, even if Houston isn't the most turnover-creating defense around, they still can find ways to confuse Allen. 

Davis Mills reveals he has a black belt. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

The Texans are probably not going to win the division. The offensive line is atrocious and giving them very little chance of actually surviving. Their starting quarterback, CJ Stroud, is in concussion protocol and will likely be out for this game. Even if he is back, I am not sure the boost he gives is all that significant. Davis Mills has played fine in his time under center, but this reminds me a bit of the Jacoby Brissett situation in Arizona. Brissett looked great for a few weeks before stumbling quite a bit. I think Mills is going to be in the same situation. He has led the Texans to two wins - one over Jacksonville, and one over the Titans, but eventually, defenses get enough film, and backup quarterback capabilities just tend to die out. I really am not trying to take anything away from him, he has two wins in a row, three touchdowns, and one interception, and has thrown for over 270 yards in both starts. If they want a chance to win, they will need Mills to succeed as there is virtually no running game in Houston. The bad news is that the Bills are the second best pass defense in the league. 

This game is over before it starts, if the Bills want it to be. It seems like they lose focus at times, and all teams tend to play worse on the road. However, with Buffalo, they have shown they could be bounced in the first round of the playoffs, or they could be the Super Bowl champion at different times this year. The Texans defense is great, but Allen is very good at keeping plays alive and if he has time, he will eventually pick apart this team, or scramble and keep the offense alive. Mills will not be able to do enough to keep the score close. Give me the Bills to cover. 

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